MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :           

20.08.2011

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

CELANESE CORPORATION

 

 

 

 

Registered Office :

1209 Orange, Wilmington, De 19801

 

 

 

 

Country :

United States 

 

 

 

 

Financials (as on) :

31.12.2010

 

 

 

 

Date of Incorporation :

11.03.2004

 

 

 

 

Legal Form :

Corporation for Profit

 

 

 

 

Line of Business :

Plastics-Raw Materials/Powder/Resin-Manufacturers

 

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ba

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

Satisfactory

 

Status :

Satisfactory

 

 

Payment Behaviour :

Usually Correct 

 

 

Litigation :

Clear

 


 

NOTES :

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail : infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – March 31st, 2011

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

                   (31.12.2010)                  

Current Rating

(31.03.2011)

United States 

a1

a1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


 


Comments on the rating:


 A Credit line maybe considered

 

                                                                                                                                      

GEOPOLITICS - UNITED STATES

 

POLITICAL DATA

ECONOMIC DATA

Form of Government: Federal


Economic Risk: Nil

Currency: USD

Branch Situation: Stable

 

 

IDENTIFICATION

 

Legal Name:

CELANESE CORPORATION

 

 

Legal Address

1209 ORANGE

WILMINGTON

DE 19801

USA

Operative Address

1601 West LBJ Freeway

Dallas, TX 75234-6034

United States

Telephone:

+1 (972) -443-4000

ID :

3865983

Fax:

+1 (972) -443-8555

Legal Form:

Corporation for Profit

Email:

info@celanese.com

Registered in:

Delaware

Website:

www.celanese.com

Date Created:

2005

Manager:

KEVIN ROGAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT

Date Incorporated:

11/03/2004

Staff:

7,250

Stock:

143.5 M

 

 

Value:

$0.01 par value

Activity:

Plastics-Raw Materials/Powder/Resin-Manufacturers

 

 

BANKS

 

Name of the Bank

DEUTSCHE BANK

 

BUSINESS

 

HISTORY

 

The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

 

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY

 

The company's primary operations include the manufacture of building block chemicals like acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomers. in North America, Europe, and Asia.

 

The company involves in processing chemical raw materials, such as methanol, carbon monoxide, and ethylene, as well as natural products, including wood pulp into value-added chemicals, thermoplastic polymers, and other chemical-based products.

 

It operates in four segments: Advanced Engineered Materials, Consumer Specialties, Industrial Specialties, and Acetyl Intermediates. The Advanced Engineered Materials segment develops, produces, and supplies polymers, which are used in automotive and electronics products, as well as other consumer and industrial applications.

 

The company is the world's largest acetyls manufacturer.

 

Celanese Corporation is incorporated in the state of Delaware, for tax purposes.

Sales are:

 

Wholesale

Brands:

 

Zenite®

liquid crystal polymer (LCP) and Thermx® polycyclohexylene-dimethylene terephthalate (PCT), from DuPont Performance Polymers.

Operations area:

 

National, International

The company export to  Europe and Asia.

Trade References:

 

Despite our efforts we were unable to confirm any trade reference for this company

 

The subject employs 7,250  employee(s)

PAYMENTS

 

regular

Comments on location:

 

The company is headquartered in Dallas Texas, and has locations worldwide.

 

 

Shareholders - Manager - Related Companies

 

Capital:

 

% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 0%

% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 98%

% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 98%

Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 296

 

Shareholders Parent Company(ies):

 

Major Direct Holders

Holder Shares Reported

 

WEIDMAN DAVID N

ALDER JAMES

MADDEN DOUG

MCGUINN MARTIN G

SANDERS DANIEL S

 

 

Management:

 

Mr. David N. Weidman

Exec. Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer

 

Mr. Steven Sterin

Chief Financial Officer

 

Mr. Doug Madden

Chief Operating Officer

 

Mr. James S. Alder

Sr. VP of Operations & Technical

 

Related Companies:

 

The company has many subsidiaries; please find enclosed the document with the subsidiaries list.



Financials - COMMERCIAL TRENDS AND FORECAST

 

The subject is a public company traded at the stock exchange. Please find enclosed the financial statements.

Comments on the financial data: This is a public company that trades at NYSE under the symbol "CE"

Please find attached the Financial Statements.


Legal Fillings

 There are 798 UCC files listed with the Secretary of State of Texas.

 

There are no legal filings listed with the District Court.

 

 

The last annual report was filed on 2010

 

For information:

 

 

The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) is one of a number of uniform acts that have been promulgated in conjunction with efforts to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial transactions in all 50 states within the United States of America.

 

 

The UCC deals primarily with transactions involving personal property (movable property), not real property (immovable property).

 

 

It allows a creditor to notify other creditors about a debtor’s assets used as collateral for a secured transaction by filing a public notice (financing statement) with a particular filing office.

 

 

The Uniform Commercial Code Bureau files and maintains on financial obligations (including IRS liens) incurred by individuals (in business as a sole proprietor), business entities and corporations.

 

 

Rating

 

Local credit bureau gave a Correct credit rate.

 

The company is in Good Standing. This means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date.

 Final Opinion

 

Celanese Corp Is a large company with 7,250 employees.

 

It was incorporated in 2004, in the state of Delaware for tax purposes, but is headquartered in Texas. It has 5 years of operations.

 

This company works as manufacturers and producers of acetyl products.

 

The annual sales as of June 30 2011 were USD 1,753,000,000, which is good for the company size.

 

We did not find any adverse situation for this company during our investigations.

 

Despite the company’s good income we suggest a follow for the long term debt.

 

 


 

SUMMARY

 


FINANCIAL SUMMARY


DEBT COLLECTIONS AND PAYMENTS

Profitability

CORRECT

Public Records

YES

Indebtedness

CONTROLLED

Payments

REGULAR

Cash

NORMAL

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX

 

Comments

 

The person contacted confirmed the legal and the trade name of the company

 


 Bottom of Form

Income Statement

 

Annual

 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

Dec 31, 2008

Total Revenue

5,918,000  

5,082,000  

6,823,000  

Cost of Revenue

4,738,000  

4,079,000  

5,567,000  

 

Gross Profit

1,180,000  

1,003,000  

1,256,000  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

70,000  

70,000  

80,000  

 

Selling General and Administrative

551,000  

610,000  

540,000  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

116,000  

 

Others

61,000  

77,000  

76,000  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

812,000  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

503,000  

290,000  

444,000  

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

76,000  

113,000  

197,000  

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

742,000  

458,000  

695,000  

 

 

Interest Expense

204,000  

207,000  

261,000  

 

 

Income Before Tax

538,000  

251,000  

434,000  

 

 

Income Tax Expense

112,000  

(243,000)

63,000  

 

 

Minority Interest

-  

-  

1,000  

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

426,000  

494,000  

372,000  

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

(47,000)

4,000  

(90,000)

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

377,000  

498,000  

282,000  

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

(3,000)

(10,000)

(10,000)

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

374,000  

488,000  

272,000  

 

 


 

Currency in USD.

 

Income Statement

Quarterly

 

 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Jun 30, 2011

Mar 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Sep 30, 2010

Total Revenue

1,753,000  

1,589,000  

1,507,000  

1,506,000  

Cost of Revenue

1,343,000  

1,238,000  

1,194,000  

1,160,000  

 

Gross Profit

410,000  

351,000  

313,000  

346,000  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

25,000  

23,000  

14,000  

21,000  

 

Selling General and Administrative

158,000  

125,000  

135,000  

85,000  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Others

17,000  

16,000  

16,000  

15,000  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

209,000  

188,000  

140,000  

221,000  

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

81,000  

5,000  

3,000  

(23,000)

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

337,000  

235,000  

188,000  

239,000  

 

 

Interest Expense

57,000  

55,000  

58,000  

48,000  

 

 

Income Before Tax

280,000  

180,000  

130,000  

191,000  

 

 

Income Tax Expense

75,000  

42,000  

27,000  

44,000  

 

 

Minority Interest

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

205,000  

138,000  

103,000  

147,000  

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

(2,000)

4,000  

(45,000)

-  

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

203,000  

142,000  

58,000  

145,000  

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

203,000  

142,000  

58,000  

145,000  

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

Balance Sheet

Annual

 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

Dec 31, 2008

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

740,000  

1,254,000  

676,000  

 

Short Term Investments

78,000  

3,000  

6,000  

 

Net Receivables

1,172,000  

1,025,000  

983,000  

 

Inventory

610,000  

522,000  

577,000  

 

Other Current Assets

68,000  

52,000  

42,000  

 

Total Current Assets

2,668,000  

2,856,000  

2,284,000  

Long Term Investments

838,000  

872,000  

883,000  

Property Plant and Equipment

3,017,000  

2,797,000  

2,472,000  

Goodwill

774,000  

798,000  

779,000  

Intangible Assets

252,000  

294,000  

364,000  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

289,000  

311,000  

357,000  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

443,000  

484,000  

27,000  

 

Total Assets

8,281,000  

8,412,000  

7,166,000  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

718,000  

754,000  

562,000  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

228,000  

242,000  

298,000  

 

Other Current Liabilities

596,000  

611,000  

509,000  

 

Total Current Liabilities

1,542,000  

1,607,000  

1,369,000  

Long Term Debt

2,990,000  

3,259,000  

3,376,000  

Other Liabilities

2,707,000  

2,823,000  

1,689,000  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

116,000  

137,000  

548,000  

Minority Interest

-  

-  

2,000  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

7,355,000  

7,826,000  

6,984,000  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

-  

-  

-  

Retained Earnings

1,851,000  

1,505,000  

1,047,000  

Treasury Stock

(829,000)

(781,000)

(781,000)

Capital Surplus

574,000  

522,000  

495,000  

Other Stockholder Equity

(670,000)

(660,000)

(579,000)

 

Total Stockholder Equity

926,000  

586,000  

182,000  

 

Net Tangible Assets

(100,000)

(506,000)

(961,000)

Currency in USD.

 

 

Balance Sheet

Quarterly

 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Jun 30, 2011

Mar 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Sep 30, 2010

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

741,000  

722,000  

740,000  

884,000  

 

Short Term Investments

70,000  

74,000  

78,000  

2,000  

 

Net Receivables

1,361,000  

1,313,000  

1,172,000  

1,203,000  

 

Inventory

779,000  

688,000  

610,000  

578,000  

 

Other Current Assets

63,000  

54,000  

68,000  

100,000  

 

Total Current Assets

3,014,000  

2,851,000  

2,668,000  

2,767,000  

Long Term Investments

838,000  

822,000  

838,000  

896,000  

Property Plant and Equipment

3,273,000  

3,153,000  

3,017,000  

2,884,000  

Goodwill

813,000  

804,000  

774,000  

785,000  

Intangible Assets

238,000  

252,000  

252,000  

271,000  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

309,000  

302,000  

289,000  

292,000  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

434,000  

438,000  

443,000  

499,000  

 

Total Assets

8,919,000  

8,622,000  

8,281,000  

8,394,000  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

911,000  

837,000  

718,000  

787,000  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

155,000  

219,000  

228,000  

261,000  

 

Other Current Liabilities

575,000  

554,000  

596,000  

589,000  

 

Total Current Liabilities

1,641,000  

1,610,000  

1,542,000  

1,637,000  

Long Term Debt

2,893,000  

3,003,000  

2,990,000  

3,010,000  

Other Liabilities

2,888,000  

2,751,000  

2,707,000  

2,698,000  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

124,000  

122,000  

116,000  

132,000  

Minority Interest

-  

-  

-  

-  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

7,546,000  

7,486,000  

7,355,000  

7,477,000  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Retained Earnings

2,180,000  

1,985,000  

1,851,000  

1,801,000  

Treasury Stock

(842,000)

(832,000)

(829,000)

(822,000)

Capital Surplus

601,000  

583,000  

574,000  

544,000  

Other Stockholder Equity

(566,000)

(600,000)

(670,000)

(606,000)

 

Total Stockholder Equity

1,373,000  

1,136,000  

926,000  

917,000  

 

Net Tangible Assets

322,000  

80,000  

(100,000)

(139,000)

Currency in USD.

 


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·        We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·        The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·        More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·        Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·        The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.


FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.45.61

UK Pound

1

Rs.75.32

Euro

1

Rs.65.68

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

 

 

 

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