MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :           

24.12.2011

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

LOUIS DREYFUS CORP

 

 

Registered Office :

20 Westport Rd, Wilton, CT 06897-4549

 

 

Country :

United States 

 

 

Year of Establishment :

1941

 

 

Legal Form :

Private Subsidiary Company

 

 

Line of Business :

Subject operates as energy, real estate and commodities businesses

 

 

No. of Employees :

200 persons

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ba

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

Satisfactory

 

Maximum Credit Limit :

$50,000 (USD)

 

 

Status :

Satisfactory

 

 

Payment Behaviour :

No Complaints

 

 

Litigation :

Clear

 


NOTES :

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail : infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – September 30th, 2011

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

                   (30.06.2011)                  

Current Rating

(30.09.2011)

United States 

a1

a1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


Company name & address

 

Louis Dreyfus Corp

20 Westport Rd

Wilton, CT 06897-4549

United States

Tel:       203-761-2000

Fax:      203-761-2275

Web:                www.louisdreyfus.com

           

 

Synthesis

 

Employees:                  200

Company Type:            Private Subsidiary

Corporate Family:          76 Companies

Ultimate Parent:             Impala Sas

Incorporation Date:         1941

Financials in:                 USD (Millions)

Reporting Currency:       US Dollar

Annual Sales:               40.0

Total Assets:                 NA

 

 

Business Description

 

Louis Dreyfus SAS (LDSAS) is a privately owned company that operates energy, real estate and commodities businesses. It also has operations in electricity distribution and renewable and biomass energy. The company's commodities division trades and markets rice, sugar, ethanol, coffee, cotton, grains and oilseeds. Founded in 1851, Louis Dreyfus SAS additionally trades ocean freight, metals and financial instruments. Its energy division specializes in the merchandising, trading and storage of natural gas, coal, refined products, plastic resins and other petrochemicals. The company operates Louis Dreyfus Property Group, which owns, develops and manages properties in North America and Europe. Louis Dreyfus SAS operates in more than 50 countries worldwide, including the United States, Canada, India, Brazil, Argentina, Europe, South Africa and the Soviet Union.

 

Industry

Industry            Miscellaneous Financial Services

ANZSIC 2006:    6411 - Financial Asset Broking Services

NACE 2002:      6523 - Other financial intermediation not elsewhere classified

NAICS 2002:     52313 - Commodity Contracts Dealing

UK SIC 2003:    6523 - Other financial intermediation not elsewhere classified

US SIC 1987:    6221 - Commodity Contracts Brokers and Dealers


 

Key Executives

(Emails Available)       

 

Name

Title

Doug Fisher

Network Administrator

Kevan Hall

Chief Technology Officer

Carl Butler

Operations

Veronica Pitaro

Director-Human Resources

Jim Wrigley

Senior Vice President

 

 

News   

 

 

Title

Date

HSBC, BNP Paribas, UniCredit part of 28 banks lending USD800m to Louis Dreyfus Commodities
EquityBites (91 Words)

21-Dec-2011

Does Short Notice Of Nominated Vessels' ETA Invalidate The Notice?
Mondaq Business Briefing (1310 Words)

21-Dec-2011

Stamford's Harbor Point adds two more restaurants
Stamford Advocate (CT) (582 Words)

20-Dec-2011

Fitch Affirms Indiantown Cogeneration and Martin Cnty Industrial Devel Auth at 'BB'; Outlook Stable
Business Wire (1033 Words)

19-Dec-2011

Alternative investor and asset manager Eiffel Investment Group capitalizes on four investment strategies to boost its development
Business Wire (945 Words)

19-Dec-2011

 

1 - Profit & Loss Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = USD 1

2 - Balance Sheet Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = USD 1

 

 

Corporate Overview

 

Location

20 Westport Rd

Wilton, CT, 06897-4549

Fairfield County

United States

Tel:       203-761-2000

Fax:      203-761-2275

Web:    www.louisdreyfus.com

             

Sales USD(mil):             40.0

Assets USD(mil):           NA

Employees:                   200

Industry:                        Miscellaneous Financial Services

Incorporation Date:         1941

Company Type:             Private Subsidiary

Quoted Status:              Not Quoted

Senior Vice President:    Jim Wrigley

 

Contents

·         Industry Codes

·         Business Description

·         Brand/Trade Names

·         Financial Data

·         Additional Information

 

Industry Codes

 

ANZSIC 2006 Codes:

6411     -          Financial Asset Broking Services

 

NACE 2002 Codes:

6712     -          Security broking and fund management

6523     -          Other financial intermediation not elsewhere classified

 

NAICS 2002 Codes:

52313   -          Commodity Contracts Dealing

52314   -          Commodity Contracts Brokerage

 

US SIC 1987:

6221     -          Commodity Contracts Brokers and Dealers

 

UK SIC 2003:

6523     -          Other financial intermediation not elsewhere classified

6712     -          Security broking and fund management

 

Business Description

Establishments primarily engaged in buying and selling commodity contracts on either a spot or future basis for their own account or for the account of others. These establishments are members, or are associated with members, of recognized commodity exchanges.

 

More Business Descriptions

 

Louis Dreyfus SAS (LDSAS) is a privately owned company that operates energy, real estate and commodities businesses. It also has operations in electricity distribution and renewable and biomass energy. The company's commodities division trades and markets rice, sugar, ethanol, coffee, cotton, grains and oilseeds. Founded in 1851, Louis Dreyfus SAS additionally trades ocean freight, metals and financial instruments. Its energy division specializes in the merchandising, trading and storage of natural gas, coal, refined products, plastic resins and other petrochemicals. The company operates Louis Dreyfus Property Group, which owns, develops and manages properties in North America and Europe. Louis Dreyfus SAS operates in more than 50 countries worldwide, including the United States, Canada, India, Brazil, Argentina, Europe, South Africa and the Soviet Union.

 

Brand/Trade Names

Delta Rose - Rice

Missouri's Finest - Rice

Petrotrade - Computer software

Showboat - Rice

Snowy River Beef - Meat products - beef

Financial Data

Financials in:

USD(mil)

 

Revenue:

40.0

1 Year Growth

NA

 

Additional Information

ABI Number:

001864941

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Report as of 02/01/2011

 

Location

20 Westport Rd
Wilton, CT 06897-4549
United States

 

County:

Fairfield

 

Phone:

203-761-2000

Fax:

203-761-2275

URL:

http://louisdreyfus.com

 

ABI©:

001864941

 

Employees:

600

 

Facility Size(ft2):

40,000+

Facility Own/Lease:

Own

 

Business Type:

Private

Location Type:

Headquarter

Recommended Credit Limit *

   $50,000 (USD)

 

Primary Line Of Business:

SIC:

6221-04 - Commodity Brokers

NAICS:

523140 - Commodity Contracts Brokerage

 

Table of Contents

 

Profile Links

Similar Businesses in the Area

Closest Neighbors

 

External Links

http://louisdreyfus.com

 


 

 

 

 

Similar Businesses in the Area *

 

Glencore
301 Tresser Blvd Ste: 1500
Stamford, CT 06901-3255

KERR Trading International
3 Big Shop Ln
Ridgefield, CT 06877-4507

Phibro LLC
500 Nyala Farms Rd Ste: 1
Westport, CT 06880-6270

Neiderhoffer Management Inc
101 Merritt 7 Ste: 6
Norwalk, CT 06851-1061

Rosenthal Collins Group
1011 High Ridge Rd Ste: 103
Stamford, CT 06905-1604

Sempra Energy Trading LLC
58 Commerce Rd
Stamford, CT 06902-4506

Oil Options Trading
21 Hickory Kingdom Rd
Bedford, NY 10506-2011

Eiger International Inc
635 Danbury Rd Ste: 3a
Ridgefield, CT 06877-2700

Glencore LTD
100 Stamford Pl
Stamford, CT 06902-6740

 

 

 

 

  * 

Similar Businesses are defined as the closest businesses sharing the same six-digit primary SIC code ( 6221-04 - Commodity Brokers) regardless of size.

Closest Neighbors

 

Galhad Group
20 Westport Rd Ste: 20
Wilton, CT 06897-4549

New Zealand Lamb Cooperative Inc
20 Westport Rd Ste: 320
Wilton, CT 06897-4550

Golf Digest
20 Westport Rd Ste: 320
Wilton, CT 06897-4550

Meridian Consulting Group LLC
20 Westport Rd Ste: 100
Wilton, CT 06897-4550

Northeast Contractors
10 Westport Rd
Wilton, CT 06897-4543

Air Age Inc
20 Westport Rd
Wilton, CT 06897-4549

Deloitte & Touche
10 Westport Rd Ste: 100
Wilton, CT 06897-4548

News America Marketing
20 Westport Rd Ste: 100
Wilton, CT 06897-4550

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Family

Corporate Structure News:

 

Impala Sas
Louis Dreyfus Corp

Louis Dreyfus Corp 
Total Corporate Family Members: 76 
Excluded Small Branches and/or Trading Addresses: 21 (Available via export) 

 

 

 

 

Company Name

Company Type

Location

Country

Industry

Sales
(USD mil)

Employees

 

Impala Sas

Parent

Paris

France

Crops

18,000.0

14

 

LDC-SEV Bioenergia S.A.

Subsidiary

São Paulo, SP

Brazil

Food Processing

1,137.2

13,150

 

Giasa S.A.

Subsidiary

Pedras de Fogo, PB

Brazil

Food Processing

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Brasil S.A.

Subsidiary

São Paulo, SP

Brazil

Crops

2,889.8

1,970

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Agroindustrial S.A.

Subsidiary

São Paulo, SP

Brazil

Crops

418.2

7,300

 

Louis Dreyfus Citrus SAS

Subsidiary

Rueil Malmaison

France

Food Processing

 

1,885

 

Macrofertil Industria E Comercio de Fertilizantes

Subsidiary

Paranagua, Parana

Brazil

Chemical Manufacturing

 

400

 

Recently acquired (previously owned by Macrofertil Industria E Comercio de Fertilizantes).See corporate structure news on Impala Sas for details

Louis Dreyfus Ukraine Ltd LLC

Subsidiary

Kyiv

Ukraine

Consumer Financial Services

540.0

300

 

LDC Argentina S.A.

Subsidiary

Buenos Aires

Argentina

Crops

1,856.6

279

 

Louis Dreyfus SACEIF

Subsidiary

Capital Federal, Buenos Aires

Argentina

Food Processing

288.0

200

 

Louis Dreyfus Corp

Subsidiary

Wilton, CT

United States

Miscellaneous Financial Services

40.0

200

 

Louis Dreyfus Corp

Branch

Kansas City, MO

United States

Crops

208.7

75

 

Louis Dreyfus Transport Lgstcs

Branch

Lubbock, TX

United States

Trucking

4.5

30

 

Louis Dreyfus Property Group

Branch

New York, NY

United States

Real Estate Operations

4.0

30

 

Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd

Subsidiary

Calgary, AB

Canada

Miscellaneous Financial Services

 

30

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities France

Subsidiary

Rueil Malmaison

France

Crops

174.7

160

 

Societe Detudes Et De Commerce

Subsidiary

Paris

France

Computer Services

 

7

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities And Energy Holdings N.V.

Subsidiary

Amsterdam, Noord-Holland

Netherlands

Miscellaneous Financial Services

 

 

 

Direct Energie

Subsidiary

Paris

France

Electric Utilities

481.2

149

 

Direct Energie Generation SAS

Subsidiary

Paris

France

Electric Utilities

 

 

 

Direct Energie Distribution SASU

Subsidiary

Paris

France

Electric Utilities

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Asia Pte. Ltd.

Subsidiary

Singapore

Singapore

Crops

5,465.7

110

 

Louis Dreyfus Egypt Ltd

Subsidiary

Alexandria

Egypt

Consumer Financial Services

 

100

 

Louis Dreyfus France

Subsidiary

Paris

France

Business Services

0.6

34

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities España S.A

Subsidiary

Madrid

Spain

Consumer Financial Services

544.7

27

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Australia Pty Ltd

Subsidiary

South Yarra, VIC

Australia

Crops

184.9

25

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Rotterdam BV

Subsidiary

Rotterdam

Netherlands

Crops

 

25

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Italia SpA

Subsidiary

Ravenna, RA

Italy

Crops

739.9

18

 

Louis Dreyfus Australia

Subsidiary

South Yarra, VIC

Australia

Consumer Financial Services

320.5

14

 

Louis Dreyfus Cotton International

Subsidiary

Antwerpen

Belgium

Consumer Financial Services

0.0

14

 

Nethgrain B.V.

Subsidiary

Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland

Netherlands

Consumer Financial Services

9,108.4

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Juices

Subsidiary

Gent

Belgium

Consumer Financial Services

0.0

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Beijing Trading Co.

Subsidiary

Beijing

China

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Shanghai Co. Ltd.

Subsidiary

Shanghai

China

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Peru

Subsidiary

Lima

Peru

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Urugrain

Subsidiary

Montevideo

Uruguay

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Saget Maroc

Subsidiary

Casablanca

Morocco

Crops

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Bangladesh

Subsidiary

Dhaka

Bangladesh

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Textiles Ltd.

Subsidiary

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Vietnam

Subsidiary

Ho Chi Minh City

Viet Nam

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Suisse S.A

Subsidiary

Geneva 15

Switzerland

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities

Subsidiary

Bogota

Colombia

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities India Pvt.

Subsidiary

Bangalore

India

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Kenya Ltd.

Subsidiary

Mombasa

Kenya

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Polska Sp.

Subsidiary

Warsaw

Poland

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Citrus Trading Lda.

Subsidiary

Funchal-Madeira

Portugal

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Vostok LLC

Subsidiary

Moscow

Russian Federation

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus & Co.

Subsidiary

Bangkok

Thailand

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Turkey

Subsidiary

Nisantasi Istanbul

Turkey

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

LDS Commodities Ltd.

Subsidiary

Ashdod

Israel

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Portugal

Subsidiary

Lisboa

Portugal

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

LDC Paraguay S.A.

Subsidiary

Asunción

Paraguay

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Metals

Subsidiary

Geneva 15

Switzerland

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Africa (Pty) Ltd

Subsidiary

Sandton

South Africa

Crops

 

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities Bulgaria

Subsidiary

Sofia

Bulgaria

Consumer Financial Services

 

 

 

 

 

Board of Directors

 

Name

Title

Function

 

Glenn Dubin

 

Co-Chairman

Chairman

 

William Reed

 

Co-Chairman

Chairman

 

Christopher Caperton

 

Director

Director/Board Member

 

 

Executives

 

Name

Title

Function

 

Carl Butler

 

Operations

Operations Executive

 

Doug Fisher

 

Network Administrator

Administration Executive

 

Veronica Pitaro

 

Director-Human Resources

Human Resources Executive

 

Chuck Bowers

 

Information Technology

Information Executive

 

Kevan Hall

 

Chief Technology Officer

Information Executive

 

Jim Wrigley

 

Senior Vice President

Other

 

 


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·         We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·         The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·         More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·         Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·         The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.

 

 


FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.52.72

UK Pound

1

Rs.82.71

Euro

1

Rs.68.90

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

 

 

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This report is issued at your request without any risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL) or its officials.