MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :

31.10.2011

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

RICHLINE GROUP INC

 

 

Registered Office :

Corporate Creations Network Inc.

3411 Silverside Road, Rodney Building #104, Wilmington, Delaware 19810

 

 

Country :

United States

 

 

Financials (as on) :

31.12.2010

 

 

Date of Incorporation :

04.05.2007

 

 

Legal Form :

Corporation for Profit

 

 

Line of Business :

Gold Jewelry Manufacturer.

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ba

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

Satisfactory

 

Status :

Satisfactory

 

 

Payment Behaviour :

No Complaints

 

 

Litigation :

Clear

 


NOTES :

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – September 30, 2011

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

(30.06.2011)

Current Rating

(30.09.2011)

United States

A1

A1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


GEOPOLITICS - UNITED STATES

 

POLITICAL DATA

ECONOMIC DATA

Form of Government: Federal


Economic Risk: Nil

Currency: USD

Branch Situation: Stable

 

 

IDENTIFICATION

Comments on data supplied:

Gem Group is a non-incorporated division in the Richline Group Inc. company.

 

Therefore, this report is written on Richline Group Inc.

 

Legal Name:

RICHLINE GROUP INC

Trade Name:

GEM GROUP

Legal Address

Corporate Creations Network Inc.

3411 Silverside Road, Rodney Building #104, Wilmington, Delaware 19810, USA.

(incorporators)

Operative Address

1385 Broadway, New York, NY 10018, USA. (headquarters)

    

Telephone:

+1 (800) 966-8800

ID :

4347124

Fax:

+1 (800) 966-8800

Legal Form:

Corporation for Profit

Email:

info@richlinegroup.com

Registered in:

DELAWARE

Website:

www.richlinegroup.com

Date Created:

2007

Manager:

Dennis Ulrich, CEO

Date Incorporated:

May, 04, 2007

Staff:

1500

Stock:

100

 

 

Value:

USD 10

Activity:

Gold Jewelry Manufacturer.

 

 

BANKS

 

Name of the Bank

SOVEREIGN BANK

Name of the Bank

THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA

Name of the Bank

JP MORGAN CHASE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BUSINESS

 

HISTORY

 

The company was founded in 1982 as Aurafin LLC and changed its name to Richline Group, Inc. in July 2007 following its acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

 

 

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY

 

Richline Group Inc. engages in designing, manufacturing, and selling gold jewelry.

 

Products/Services description:

 

It offers gold necklaces, bracelets, earrings, charms, pendants, and rings.

 

The company also produces precious and semi-precious gemstone jewelry.

 

It sells its products through a network of retail jewelers in the United States, Puerto Rico, Guam, and Europe.

Sales are:

 

Wholesale, Retail.

Brands:

 

Alarama, Andin, Aurafin, AuraGem, Bel-Oro, Michael Anthony, Sardelli and Tru-Kay.

Clients:

 

Miscellaneous

Operations area:

 

National, International

The company imports from China and Peru.

The company export to worldwide, depending on the demand.

The subject employs 1500 employees.

 

PAYMENTS

 

Regular.

LOCATION

Headquarters

 

The company is headquartered at:

1385 Broadway, New York, NY 10018, USA.

 

Comments on location:

 

The company is incorporated in Delaware for tax purposes. However, it operates and is headquartered in New York.

Branches:

 

TAMARAC

6701 Nob Hill Rd

Tamarac, FL 33321, USA.

Phone: 1.800.327.1808     

 

RHODE ISLAND

185 Jefferson Blvd

Warwick, RI 02888, USA.

Phone: 1.800.964.0020 

 

BURBANK

250 E. Olive Ave Ste 201

Burbank, CA 91502, USA.

Phone: 1.800.423.2246     

  

Business Overview:

 

The US jewelry retail industry generates annual revenues of about $25 billion from 30,000 specialty stores. Jewelry sale depend partly on consumer income. Small jewelers can effectively compete with large chains because price isn't the main factor determining sales. Profitability depends on merchandising and effective marketing.

 



Shareholders - Manager - Related Companies

 

Listed at the stock exchange:

 

NO

Shareholders Parent Company(ies):

 

Richline Group, Inc operates as a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

 

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is publicly traded at the NYSE under the ticker (BRK).

 

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

3555 Farnam Street

Suite 1440

Omaha, NE 68131

United States

Management:

 

Dennis Ulrich, CEO 

David Meleski, President.

Related Companies:

 

Sister Companies:

 

Acme Brick Company

3024 Acme Brick Plaza

Fort Worth, TX 76109-4104, USA.

 

HomeServices of America, Inc.

333 South 7th Street, 27th Floor

Minneapolis, MN 55402, USA.

 

Precision Steel Warehouse, Inc.

3500 N. Wolf Rd.

Franklin Park, IL 60131-1395, USA.

 

Nebraska Furniture Mart, Inc.

700 S 72nd ST,

Omaha, NE 68114, USA.

Amongst others.  

 



Financials - COMMERCIAL TRENDS AND FORECAST

 

As a private company the subject does not publish any financial statements.

 

We enclose the financial statements of the parent company Berkshire Hathaway Inc which publishes them.

 

 

Currency

DATE

 

 

USD

2010

 

 

Turnover

136,185,000,000

 

 

Operating Income

107,449,000,000

 

 

Net Income

21,609,000,000

 

 

The cash flow is

NORMAL

 

 

 

 

Comments on the financial data: We have transcribed the main figures into the chart in order to have a better approach to the company's financial position.


Legal Fillings

There are several UCC** files listed in the Secretary of State of New York.

 

There are no legal filings listed with the District Court.

 

THE COMPANY IS NOT LISTED ON THE OFAC LIST.*

 

 

For information:

 

The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) is one of a number of uniform acts that have been promulgated in conjunction with efforts to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial transactions in all 50 states within the United States of America. 

 

The UCC deals primarily with transactions involving personal property (movable property), not real property (immovable property).

 

It allows a creditor to notify other creditors about a debtors assets used as collateral for a secured transaction by filing a public notice (financing statement) with a particular filing office.

 

The Uniform Commercial Code Bureau files and maintains on financial obligations (including IRS liens) incurred by individuals (in business as a sole proprietor), business entities and corporations.

 



 Rating

 

Local credit bureau gave a VERY GOOD credit rate.

 

The company is in Good Standing. This means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date.

 

 

Final Opinion

 

This is a big sized American company which employs 1.500 people and has 4 years of experience in business.

 

The company is active and in good standing.

 

We have found several payment experiences recorded.

 

The company is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., publicly traded at the NYSE under the ticker (BRK).

 

To fully secure the credit line granted, we suggest calling the parent company as a guarantor.

 

 

SUMMARY

 


FINANCIAL SUMMARY


DEBT COLLECTIONS AND PAYMENTS

 

Profitability

N.A.

Public Records

NO

 

 

Indebtedness

N.A.

Payments

REGULAR

 

 

Cash

NORMAL

 

 

 

 

 


Financial

 

Income Statement

 

 

Annual Data 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

Dec 31, 2008

Total Revenue

136,185,000  

112,493,000  

107,786,000  

Cost of Revenue

28,736,000  

26,424,000  

63,943,000  

 

Gross Profit

107,449,000  

86,069,000  

43,843,000  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

-  

-  

-  

 

Selling General and Administrative

7,704,000  

8,117,000  

34,306,000  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

-  

 

Others

78,136,000  

64,408,000  

-  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

21,609,000  

13,544,000  

9,537,000  

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

21,609,000  

13,544,000  

9,537,000  

 

 

Interest Expense

2,558,000  

1,992,000  

1,963,000  

 

 

Income Before Tax

19,051,000  

11,552,000  

7,574,000  

 

 

Income Tax Expense

5,607,000  

3,538,000  

1,978,000  

 

 

Minority Interest

(527,000)

(386,000)

(602,000)

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

13,444,000  

8,014,000  

4,994,000  

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

12,967,000  

8,055,000  

4,994,000  

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

12,967,000  

8,055,000  

4,994,000  

 

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Statement

 

 

Quarterly Data

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Jun 30, 2011

Mar 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Sep 30, 2010

Total Revenue

38,274,000  

33,720,000  

36,165,000  

36,274,000  

Cost of Revenue

8,958,000  

8,758,000  

6,758,000  

8,749,000  

 

Gross Profit

29,316,000  

24,962,000  

29,407,000  

27,525,000  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Selling General and Administrative

2,122,000  

2,035,000  

2,054,000  

1,896,000  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Others

21,267,000  

20,035,000  

20,212,000  

20,427,000  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

4,607,000  

2,892,000  

7,141,000  

6,432,000  

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

5,927,000  

2,892,000  

7,141,000  

5,202,000  

 

 

Interest Expense

662,000  

658,000  

660,000  

668,000  

 

 

Income Before Tax

5,265,000  

2,234,000  

6,481,000  

4,534,000  

 

 

Income Tax Expense

1,725,000  

629,000  

2,008,000  

1,415,000  

 

 

Minority Interest

(123,000)

(94,000)

(96,000)

(130,000)

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

3,540,000  

1,605,000  

4,473,000  

3,119,000  

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

3,417,000  

1,511,000  

4,377,000  

2,989,000  

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

3,417,000  

1,511,000  

4,377,000  

2,989,000  

 

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance Sheet

 

 

Annual Data 

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

Dec 31, 2008

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

38,227,000  

30,558,000  

25,539,000  

 

Short Term Investments

-  

-  

-  

 

Net Receivables

36,143,000  

28,781,000  

-  

 

Inventory

7,101,000  

6,147,000  

-  

 

Other Current Assets

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Assets

-  

-  

-  

Long Term Investments

117,711,000  

126,293,000  

131,107,000  

Property Plant and Equipment

93,126,000  

46,656,000  

52,657,000  

Goodwill

49,006,000  

33,972,000  

33,781,000  

Intangible Assets

-  

-  

-  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

30,915,000  

24,712,000  

20,392,000  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-  

-  

3,923,000  

 

Total Assets

372,229,000  

297,119,000  

267,399,000  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

29,361,000  

22,362,000  

30,983,000  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

-  

-  

-  

 

Other Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

Long Term Debt

58,574,000  

37,909,000  

51,494,000  

Other Liabilities

85,008,000  

81,838,000  

71,343,000  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

36,352,000  

19,225,000  

-  

Minority Interest

5,616,000  

4,683,000  

4,312,000  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

214,911,000  

166,017,000  

158,132,000  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

8,000  

8,000  

8,000  

Retained Earnings

99,194,000  

86,227,000  

78,172,000  

Treasury Stock

-  

-  

-  

Capital Surplus

37,533,000  

27,074,000  

27,133,000  

Other Stockholder Equity

20,583,000  

17,793,000  

3,954,000  

 

Total Stockholder Equity

157,318,000  

131,102,000  

109,267,000  

 

Net Tangible Assets

108,312,000  

97,130,000  

75,486,000  

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 


 

Balance Sheet

 

 

Quarterly Data

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Jun 30, 2011

Mar 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Sep 30, 2010

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

47,891,000  

41,178,000  

38,227,000  

34,461,000  

 

Short Term Investments

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Net Receivables

33,595,000  

34,503,000  

36,143,000  

33,485,000  

 

Inventory

7,960,000  

7,564,000  

7,101,000  

6,924,000  

 

Other Current Assets

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Assets

-  

-  

-  

-  

Long Term Investments

118,156,000  

119,385,000  

117,711,000  

117,077,000  

Property Plant and Equipment

94,952,000  

93,773,000  

93,126,000  

92,024,000  

Goodwill

49,125,000  

49,080,000  

49,006,000  

49,196,000  

Intangible Assets

-  

-  

-  

-  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

31,017,000  

31,013,000  

30,915,000  

30,812,000  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Assets

382,696,000  

376,496,000  

372,229,000  

363,979,000  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

29,718,000  

29,582,000  

29,361,000  

29,365,000  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Other Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

-  

Long Term Debt

56,717,000  

56,546,000  

58,574,000  

58,663,000  

Other Liabilities

91,668,000  

88,905,000  

85,008,000  

88,748,000  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

37,809,000  

37,198,000  

36,352,000  

32,606,000  

Minority Interest

3,777,000  

4,210,000  

5,616,000  

4,926,000  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

219,689,000  

216,441,000  

214,911,000  

214,308,000  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

8,000  

8,000  

8,000  

8,000  

Retained Earnings

104,122,000  

100,705,000  

99,194,000  

94,817,000  

Treasury Stock

-  

-  

-  

-  

Capital Surplus

37,771,000  

37,578,000  

37,533,000  

38,123,000  

Other Stockholder Equity

21,106,000  

21,764,000  

20,583,000  

16,723,000  

 

Total Stockholder Equity

163,007,000  

160,055,000  

157,318,000  

149,671,000  

 

Net Tangible Assets

113,882,000  

110,975,000  

108,312,000  

100,475,000  

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·         We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·         The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·         More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·         Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·         The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.

 


 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.48.82

UK Pound

1

Rs.78.57

Euro

1

Rs.69.28

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

--

NB

                                       New Business

 

--

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

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