MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :

28.04.2012

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

THE DAVID J. JOSEPH COMPANY

 

 

Registered Office :

Corporation Trust Center 1209, Orange Street Wilmington, New Castle, De, 19801

 

 

Country :

United States

 

 

Financials (as on) :

31.12.2011

 

 

Year of Establishment :

1885

 

 

Legal Form :

Corporation for Profit

 

 

Line of Business :

Ferrous Metal Scrap

 

 

No. of Employees :

2,013 (not verified)

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ba

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

Satisfactory

 

Status :

Good

Payment Behaviour :

Regular

Litigation :

Clear

 


 

NOTES:

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – March 31st, 2012

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

(31.12.2011)

Current Rating

(31.03.2012)

United States

A1

A1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


GEOPOLITICS

 

POLITICAL DATA

ECONOMIC DATA

Form of GovernmentGOVERNMENT

Federal

Currency

USD

Economic Risk

Nil

Branch Situation

Stable

 

 

IDENTIFICATION

 

Legal Name:

THE DAVID J. JOSEPH COMPANY

Trade Name:

DJJ

Legal Address:

CORPORATION TRUST CENTER 1209, ORANGE STREET WILMINGTON, NEW CASTLE, DE, 19801, USA (registered agent)

Operative Address:

300 Poke Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202, USA

Telephone:

+1 (513) 419-6200

ID:

0358901

Fax:

+1 (513) 419-6222

Legal Form:

Corporation for Profit

Email:

info@djj.com

Registerd In:

Delaware

Website:

www.djj.com

Date Created:

1885

Manager:

Keith Grass, CEO

Date Incorporated

May 27th, 1937

Staff:

2,013 (not verified)

Stock:

NA

 

 

Value:

NA

Activity:

Ferrous Metal Scrap.

 

 

BANKS

 

Name of the Bank

Bank of America

 

 

 

 

BUSINESS

 

HISTORY:

 

This company was created in 1885.

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY:

 

The Company engages in trading and processing ferrous and nonferrous scrap, as well as ferro-alloys, pig iron, and HBI/DRI.

Products/Services description:

 

The company offers:
- aluminum scrap.
- primary and secondary aluminum alloys.
- RSI toll conversion.
- heavy media, drosses, industrial scrap.


Among Others services.

The subject operates under the ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 normatives.

Sales are:

 

Wholesale

Clients:

 

Various industries

Operations area:

 

National,

 

The company imports from Trinidad and Tobago, China, Venezuela.

 

 

 

Trade References :

 

 

- Nu-Iron Unlimited, Trinidad and Tobago.
- Nexus Metals Ltd, China.

 

Competitors:

 

 

- OmniSource Corporation, Fort Wayne, IN, USA
- Soave Enterprises LLC Detroit, MI, USA
- Tube City IMS, LLC, Glassport, PA, USA

 

 

 

The subject employs 2,013 (not verified) employee(s)

 

 

 

Payments :

 

 

regular

 

LOCATION :

 

 

 

Headquarters:

 

 

 

300 Poke Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202, USA

 

Comments on location:

 

 

 

This company is incorporated in Delaware for tax purposes. However it is headquartered in Ohio.

 

Branches:

 

 

 

The company has numerous branches around the country, including:

-St. Joseph 750 South 4th St. St. Joseph, MO 64501
-Fort Scott 854 S. Hwy. 69 Fort Scott, KS 66701
-Omaha Trading Office 1014 Douglas Street - 2nd Floor Omaha, NE

Among others.

 

 

 

Shareholders - Manager - Related Companies

 

Listed at the stock exchange:

 

NO

 

Shareholders Parent Company(ies):

 

The company is wholly own subsidiary of Nucor Corporation, a public company that operates at the ctock exchange NYSE under ticker symbol "NUE".

Nucor Corporation
1915 Rexford Road
Charlotte, NC 28211

Phone: 704-366-7000

Management:

 

Keith Grass, CEO
James Goetz, CFO
Gary Muzzillo, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT
Rob Angotti, Executive Vice Presiden
Craig Feldman, Executive Vice President

 

 

Financials - COMMERCIAL TRENDS AND FORECAST

 

As a private company the subject does not publish any financial statements.

We couldnt contact any representative from the company to ask for financial information.

However our financial sources could provide us with the following data.

Those figures are estimates provided by confidential banking and financial institutions working with the company.

 

Currency

DATE

USD

2011

Turnover

20.023.564.000

Operating Income

1,427.949.000

Net Income

778.188.000

Current Assets

6.708.081.000

Fixed Assets

7.862.269.000

Net worth

7.474.885.000

Bank liabilities

4.282.026.000

The cash flow is Normal




Currency

DATE

USD

2010(Consolidated from mother company)

Turnover

15,844,627,000

Operating Income

452,290,000

Net Income

134,092,000

Current Assets

5,861,175,000

Fixed Assets

4,427,651,000

Net worth

7,120,070,000

The cash flow is NORMAL




Currency

DATE

USD

2008

Turnover

912 000

Operating Income

21 000

Net Income

10 000

Net worth

75 000

Liabilities

10 000

The cash flow is NORMAL



Comments on the financial data : Dear client we have consolidated the financial statements with those of the subjects parents company.

Please find attache the consolidated financial statement.

 

legal fillings



There are several UCC files listed with the Secretary of State of Ohio.

There are no legal filings listed with the District Court.

THE COMPANY IS NOT LISTED ON THE OFAC LIST.*

For information:

* The Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List is a publication of OFAC which lists individuals and organizations with whom United States citizens and permanent residents are prohibited from doing business.


** The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) is one of a number of uniform acts that have been promulgated in conjunction with efforts to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial transactions in all 50 states within the United States of America.

The UCC deals primarily with transactions involving personal property (movable property), not real property (immovable property).

It allows a creditor to notify other creditors about a debtors assets used as collateral for a secured transaction by filing a public notice (financing statement) with a particular filing office.

The Uniform Commercial Code Bureau files and maintains on financial obligations (including IRS liens) incurred by individuals (in business as a sole proprietor), business entities and corporations.

 

 

Rating

 

Local credit bureau gave a Correct credit rate.

The company is in Good Standing. This means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date.

FINAL OPINION:

This is a large sized company with 2.200 employees and a long trayectory in business.

The company is active according to the Secretary of State of Delaware, where it is incorporated for tax purposes.

The subject operates under the ISO 14001:2004 and ISO 9001:2008 reglamentations.

The company is wholly own subsidiary of Nucor Corporation, a public company that trades at the stock exchange NYSE.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

FINANCIAL SUMMARY

DEBT COLLECTIONS AND PAYMENTS

Profitability

CORRECT

Public Records

NO

Indebtedness

CONTROLLED

Payments

REGULAR

Cash

NORMAL

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX

 

Comments:

 


We couldn’t contact anyone from the company to check the information.

 

financial: Nucor corporation

 

Income Statement

 

View: Annual Data |

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

Total Revenue

20,023,564  

15,844,627  

11,190,296  

Cost of Revenue

18,074,967  

15,000,962  

11,035,903  

 

Gross Profit

1,948,597  

843,665  

154,393  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

-  

-  

-  

 

Selling General and Administrative

520,648  

391,375  

351,278  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

-  

 

Others

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

1,427,949  

452,290  

(196,885)

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

1,427,949  

452,290  

(196,885)

 

 

Interest Expense

166,094  

153,093  

134,752  

 

 

Income Before Tax

1,261,855  

299,197  

(331,637)

 

 

Income Tax Expense

390,828  

60,792  

(176,800)

 

 

Minority Interest

(82,796)

(72,231)

(56,435)

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

778,188  

134,092  

(293,613)

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

778,188  

134,092  

(293,613)

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

778,188  

134,092  

(293,613)

 

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quarterly Data

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2011

Oct 1, 2011

Jul 2, 2011

Apr 2, 2011

Total Revenue

4,829,677  

5,252,144  

5,107,809  

4,833,934  

Cost of Revenue

4,461,568  

4,776,283  

4,441,591  

4,395,525  

 

Gross Profit

368,109  

475,861  

666,218  

438,409  

 

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Selling General and Administrative

108,050  

140,206  

147,014  

125,378  

 

Non Recurring

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

Others

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income or Loss

260,059  

335,655  

519,204  

313,031  

 

 

 

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

386,002  

295,462  

480,230  

266,255  

 

 

Interest Expense

166,094  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Income Before Tax

219,908  

295,462  

480,230  

266,255  

 

 

Income Tax Expense

65,882  

84,104  

155,709  

85,133  

 

 

Minority Interest

(21,117)

(18,593)

(21,805)

(21,281)

 

 

 

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

137,056  

181,518  

303,983  

155,631  

 

 

 

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Extraordinary Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

Other Items

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

137,056  

181,518  

303,983  

155,631  

 

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-  

-  

-  

-  

 

 

 

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

137,056  

181,518  

299,773  

159,841  

 

Currency in USD.

 

Balance Sheet

 

View: Annual Data |

All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

1,200,645  

1,325,406  

2,016,981  

 

Short Term Investments

1,362,641  

1,153,623  

225,000  

 

Net Receivables

1,710,773  

1,439,828  

1,116,035  

 

Inventory

1,987,257  

1,557,574  

1,312,903  

 

Other Current Assets

446,765  

384,744  

511,329  

 

Total Current Assets

6,708,081  

5,861,175  

5,182,248  

Long Term Investments

-  

-  

-  

Property Plant and Equipment

3,755,604  

3,852,118  

4,013,836  

Goodwill

1,830,661  

1,836,294  

1,803,021  

Intangible Assets

784,640  

856,125  

902,922  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

1,491,364  

1,516,198  

669,877  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Assets

14,570,350  

13,921,910  

12,571,904  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

1,744,233  

1,491,110  

1,219,309  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

651,826  

13,328  

7,748  

 

Other Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Liabilities

2,396,059  

1,504,438  

1,227,057  

Long Term Debt

3,630,200  

4,280,200  

3,080,200  

Other Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

837,511  

806,578  

680,358  

Minority Interest

231,695  

210,624  

193,763  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

7,095,465  

6,801,840  

5,181,378  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

150,496  

150,181  

149,877  

Retained Earnings

7,111,566  

6,795,988  

7,120,218  

Treasury Stock

(1,505,534)

(1,509,841)

(1,514,290)

Capital Surplus

1,756,534  

1,711,518  

1,675,777  

Other Stockholder Equity

(38,177)

(27,776)

(41,056)

 

Total Stockholder Equity

7,474,885  

7,120,070  

7,390,526  

 

Net Tangible Assets

4,859,584  

4,427,651  

4,684,583  

 

 

Currency in USD.

 

 

 

 

 

Quarterly Data                                                                                    All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Dec 31, 2011

Dec 31, 2010

Dec 31, 2009

 

Assets

Current Assets

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

1,200,645  

1,325,406  

2,016,981  

 

Short Term Investments

1,362,641  

1,153,623  

225,000  

 

Net Receivables

1,710,773  

1,439,828  

1,116,035  

 

Inventory

1,987,257  

1,557,574  

1,312,903  

 

Other Current Assets

446,765  

384,744  

511,329  

 

Total Current Assets

6,708,081  

5,861,175  

5,182,248  

Long Term Investments

-  

-  

-  

Property Plant and Equipment

3,755,604  

3,852,118  

4,013,836  

Goodwill

1,830,661  

1,836,294  

1,803,021  

Intangible Assets

784,640  

856,125  

902,922  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

1,491,364  

1,516,198  

669,877  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Assets

14,570,350  

13,921,910  

12,571,904  

 

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

Accounts Payable

1,744,233  

1,491,110  

1,219,309  

 

Short/Current Long Term Debt

651,826  

13,328  

7,748  

 

Other Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Current Liabilities

2,396,059  

1,504,438  

1,227,057  

Long Term Debt

3,630,200  

4,280,200  

3,080,200  

Other Liabilities

-  

-  

-  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

837,511  

806,578  

680,358  

Minority Interest

231,695  

210,624  

193,763  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  

 

Total Liabilities

7,095,465  

6,801,840  

5,181,378  

 

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Common Stock

150,496  

150,181  

149,877  

Retained Earnings

7,111,566  

6,795,988  

7,120,218  

Treasury Stock

(1,505,534)

(1,509,841)

(1,514,290)

Capital Surplus

1,756,534  

1,711,518  

1,675,777  

Other Stockholder Equity

(38,177)

(27,776)

(41,056)

 

Total Stockholder Equity

7,474,885  

7,120,070  

7,390,526  

 

Net Tangible Assets

4,859,584  

4,427,651  

4,684,583  

Currency in USD.

 

Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·        We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·         The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·         More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·         Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·         The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.

 


FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.52.68

UK Pound

1

Rs.85.12

Euro

1

Rs.69.38

 

INFORMATION DETAILS

 

Report Prepared by :

MNL

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

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