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MIRA INFORM REPORT
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Report Date : |
03.01.2012 |
IDENTIFICATION DETAILS
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Name : |
MARSHALLS OF MA INC |
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Formerly Known As : |
MARSHALL'S, INC |
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Registered Office : |
770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701 |
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Country : |
United States |
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Financials (as on) : |
29.01.2011 |
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Date of Incorporation : |
20.05.1958 |
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Legal Form : |
Corporation for Profit |
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Line of Business : |
Retailer of apparel and home fashioned products |
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No. of Employees
: |
20,000 |
RATING & COMMENTS
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MIRA’s Rating : |
A |
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RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
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|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General
unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for
payment of interest and principal sums |
Fairly Large |
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Maximum Credit Limit : |
USD 2,000,000. |
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Status : |
Good |
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Payment
Behaviour : |
Regular |
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Litigation : |
Clear |
NOTES :
Any query related to this report can be made
on e-mail : infodept@mirainform.com
while quoting report number, name and date.
ECGC Country Risk Classification List – September 30th, 2011
|
Country Name |
Previous Rating (30.06.2011) |
Current Rating (30.09.2011) |
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United States |
a1 |
a1 |
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Risk Category |
ECGC
Classification |
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Insignificant |
A1 |
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Low |
A2 |
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Moderate |
B1 |
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High |
B2 |
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Very High |
C1 |
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Restricted |
C2 |
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Off-credit |
D |
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POLITICAL DATA |
ECONOMIC DATA |
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Form of Government: Federal
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Currency: |
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Legal Name: |
MARSHALLS OF MA INC |
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Trade Name: |
MARSHALLS |
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Legal Address |
770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA. |
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Operative Address |
770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA. |
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Mailing Address |
P.O. BOX 9162 Framingham, Massachusetts 01701, USA. |
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Telephone: |
+1 508-390-3000 |
ID : |
042261984 |
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Fax: |
+1 508-390-3000 |
Legal Form: |
Corporation for Profit |
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Email: |
Registered in: |
Massachusetts |
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Website: |
Date Created: |
1958 |
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Manager: |
Michael Macmillan, President. |
Date Incorporated: |
May 20th, 1958 |
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Staff: |
20,000 |
Stock: |
NA |
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Value: |
NA |
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Activity: |
Retailer of apparel and home fashioned products. |
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Name of the Bank |
CITIBANK |
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Name of the Bank |
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK |
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HISTORY |
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The company was formerly known as MARSHALL'S OF TEWKSBURY, INC. On
11/16/1962, it changed its name to MARSHALL'S OF BEDFORD, INC. On 4/26/1973, it changed its name to MARSHALL'S, INC, and finally on
8/21/1996 the company changed its name to the current one, "MARSHALLS OF
MA, INC." |
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PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY |
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The company operates as a wholesaler and retailer of apparel and home
fashioned products. It sells its products through numerous stores and a website. |
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Products/Services description: |
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Activewear, dresses, separates, sportswear, and shoes and athletic
footwear for men, women, juniors, boys, girls, and infants, as well as offers
lingerie, suits and sport coats, and giftware products. |
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Sales are: |
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Wholesale, Retail. |
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Clients: |
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General clientele and various industries. |
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Operations area: |
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National. |
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The company imports from worldwide, depending on the demand. |
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The company does not export. |
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The subject employs 20,000 employees. |
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Comments on staff: |
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This information was not verified by the company. It was provided from
outside sources. |
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PAYMENTS |
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Made on a 50 days basis - monitored over the last 12 months. |
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LOCATION |
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Headquarters |
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The company is headquartered at: 770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA. |
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Branches: |
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The company has 15 locations in several states of the USA. |
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Listed at the stock exchange: |
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NO |
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Shareholders Parent Company(ies): |
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The company is privately held. It operates as a subsidiary of The TJX
Companies, Inc., a company that trades publicly at NYSE under the symbol
"TJX". The TJX Companies, Inc. 770 Cochituate Road Framingham, MA 01701 Main Number: 508-390-1000 Web: www.tjx.com |
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Management: |
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Michael Macmillan, President. |
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As a private company the subject does not publish any financial
statements. |
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We have contacted the accounting department but they refused to
provide us any financial data without knowing the name of the inquiring
party. |
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However our financial sources could provide us with the following
data. Those figures are estimates provided by confidential banking and
financial institutions working with the company. |
|
Currency |
DATE |
|
USD |
2010 (consolidated from mother company) |
|
Turnover |
21,942,193,000 |
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Operating Income |
2,203,229,000 |
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Net Income |
1,343,141,000 |
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Current Assets |
5,099,527,000 |
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Fixed Assets |
2,872,236,000 |
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Net worth |
3,099,899,000 |
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Liabilities |
4,871,864 |
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Bank liabilities |
790,244 |
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The cash flow is |
GOOD |
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Currency |
DATE |
|
USD |
2009 (consolidated from mother company) |
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Turnover |
20,288,444,000 |
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Operating Income |
1,991,071,000 |
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Net Income |
1,213,572,000 |
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Current Assets |
4,803,856,000 |
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Net worth |
2,889,276,000 |
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Liabilities |
4,574,701,000 |
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Currency |
DATE |
|
USD |
2008 |
|
Turnover |
3,840,000,000 |
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Operating Income |
83,000,000 |
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Net Income |
51,000,000 |
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Current Assets |
1,390,000,000 |
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Fixed Assets |
780,000,000 |
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Net worth |
750,000,000 |
|
Liabilities |
510,000,000 |
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The cash flow is |
NORMAL |
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Comments on the financial data: We have
consolidated the financial statements with those of our subject's parent
company. We have transcribed the main figures into the chart. Please find
enclosed the parent company's detailed financial statement. |
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Legal Fillings
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There are 3 UCC** files listed with the
Secretary of State of Massachusetts: There are various claims, lawsuits, and
pending actions against the Company and affiliates incident to the operations
of its businesses. It is the opinion of management, after consultation with
counsel, that the ultimate resolution of such claims, lawsuits and pending
actions will not have a material adverse effect on the Company's consolidated
financial position, results of operations or liquidity. THE COMPANY IS NOT LISTED ON THE OFAC
LIST.* For information: * The Specially Designated Nationals (SDN)
List is a publication of OFAC which lists individuals and organizations with
whom United States citizens and permanent residents are prohibited from doing
business. ** The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) is
one of a number of uniform acts that have been promulgated in conjunction
with efforts to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial transactions
in all 50 states within the United States of America. The UCC deals primarily with transactions
involving personal property (movable property), not real property (immovable
property). It allows a creditor to notify other
creditors about a debtor’s assets used as collateral for a secured
transaction by filing a public notice (financing statement) with a particular
filing office. The Uniform Commercial Code Bureau files
and maintains on financial obligations (including IRS liens) incurred by
individuals (in business as a sole proprietor), business entities and corporations. |
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Local credit bureau gave a GOOD credit
rate. The company is in Good Standing. This
means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date. |
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Final Opinion |
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This is a big sized American company which
employs 20,000 people and has 54 years of experience in the industry. The company is active, in good standing
and we have found payment experience recorder. There were several recent
lawsuits found against the company suing personal injury, diversity,
employment discrimination, and Copyright Infringement among others. It is the
opinion of management, after consultation with counsel, that the ultimate
resolution of such claims, lawsuits and pending actions will not have a
material adverse effect on the Company's consolidated financial position,
results of operations or liquidity. The structure is a wholly owned subsidiary
of TJX Companies Inc (TJX:NYSE). A big sized American company that has
registered for 2010 an estimate of 166,000 employees and revenues exceeding
USD 20 Billions. The financial information for our
subject's parent company shows that it has been improving its performance
year after year and it remains very solid in the market. Since our subject's
activities are deeply related to those of its parent company, we believe that
it has direct effect on it. Having all this in consideration, a credit
line may be considered for USD 2,000,000. |
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Profitability |
N.A. |
Public
Records |
NO |
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Indebtedness |
N.A. |
Payments |
REGULAR |
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Cash |
NORMAL |
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Position |
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Accounting Representative. |
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Comments |
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The contacted person provided us with the following information:
company's name, location, activity, products. However, she refused to provide
further information without knowing the name of the inquiring party. |
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Income Statement
Annual data
All
numbers in thousands
|
Period
Ending |
Jan 29, 2011 |
Jan
30, 2010 |
Jan
31, 2009 |
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Total Revenue |
21,942,193 |
20,288,444 |
18,999,505 |
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Cost of Revenue |
16,040,461 |
14,968,429 |
14,429,185 |
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Gross Profit |
5,901,732 |
5,320,015 |
4,570,320 |
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Operating Expenses |
|
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Research Development |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
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Selling General and
Administrative |
3,698,503 |
3,328,944 |
3,105,089 |
|
|
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Non Recurring |
- |
- |
(30,500) |
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Others |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Total Operating Expenses |
- |
- |
- |
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Operating Income or Loss |
2,203,229 |
1,991,071 |
1,465,231 |
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Income from Continuing
Operations |
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Total Other Income/Expenses Net |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Earnings Before Interest And
Taxes |
2,164,092 |
1,951,562 |
1,450,940 |
|
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Interest Expense |
- |
- |
14,291 |
|
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Income Before Tax |
2,164,092 |
1,951,562 |
1,450,940 |
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Income Tax Expense |
824,562 |
737,990 |
536,054 |
|
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Minority Interest |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Net Income From Continuing Ops |
1,339,530 |
1,213,572 |
914,886 |
|
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Non-recurring Events |
|
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Discontinued Operations |
3,611 |
- |
(34,269) |
|
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Extraordinary Items |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
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Effect Of Accounting Changes |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Other Items |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Net Income |
1,343,141 |
1,213,572 |
880,617 |
||
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Preferred Stock And Other
Adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
||
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Net Income Applicable To Common
Shares |
1,343,141 |
1,213,572 |
880,617 |
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Currency in USD
Income Statement
Quarterly data
All
numbers in thousands
|
Period
Ending |
Oct 29, 2011 |
Jul
30, 2011 |
Apr 30, 2011 |
Jan 29, 2011 |
|
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Total Revenue |
5,793,128 |
5,468,274 |
5,220,295 |
6,331,726 |
|
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Cost of Revenue |
4,166,587 |
3,976,035 |
3,827,258 |
4,666,173 |
|
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Gross Profit |
1,626,541 |
1,492,239 |
1,393,037 |
1,665,553 |
|
|
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Operating Expenses |
||||
|
|
Research Development |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Selling General and
Administrative |
954,238 |
923,693 |
954,474 |
1,122,081 |
|
|
Non Recurring |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Others |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Total Operating Expenses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Operating Income or Loss |
672,303 |
568,546 |
438,563 |
543,472 |
|
|
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Income
from Continuing Operations |
||||
|
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Total Other Income/Expenses Net |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Earnings Before Interest And
Taxes |
663,752 |
559,437 |
429,646 |
534,327 |
|
|
Interest Expense |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Income Before Tax |
663,752 |
559,437 |
429,646 |
534,327 |
|
|
Income Tax Expense |
257,265 |
211,099 |
163,695 |
203,524 |
|
|
Minority Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
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Net Income From Continuing Ops |
406,487 |
348,338 |
265,951 |
330,803 |
|
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Non-recurring
Events |
||||
|
|
Discontinued Operations |
- |
- |
- |
3,611 |
|
|
Extraordinary Items |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Effect Of Accounting Changes |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Other Items |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Net Income |
406,487 |
348,338 |
265,951 |
334,414 |
|
|
Preferred Stock And Other
Adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Net Income Applicable To
Common Shares |
406,487 |
348,338 |
265,951 |
334,414 |
|
Currency in USD
Balance sheet
Annual Data
All numbers in thousands
|
Period
Ending |
Jan
29, 2011 |
Jan
30, 2010 |
Jan
31, 2009 |
|
Assets |
|||
|
Current Assets |
|
|
|
|
Cash
And Cash Equivalents |
1,741,751 |
1,614,607 |
453,527 |
|
Short
Term Investments |
76,261 |
130,636 |
- |
|
Net
Receivables |
266,219 |
270,588 |
279,175 |
|
Inventory |
2,765,464 |
2,532,318 |
2,619,336 |
|
Other
Current Assets |
249,832 |
255,707 |
274,091 |
|
Total Current Assets |
5,099,527 |
4,803,856 |
3,626,129 |
|
Long Term Investments |
- |
- |
- |
|
Property Plant and Equipment |
2,460,782 |
2,287,097 |
2,201,204 |
|
Goodwill |
- |
- |
179,528 |
|
Intangible Assets |
179,936 |
179,794 |
179,528 |
|
Accumulated Amortization |
- |
- |
- |
|
Other Assets |
231,518 |
193,230 |
171,381 |
|
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges |
- |
- |
- |
|
Total Assets |
7,971,763 |
7,463,977 |
6,178,242 |
|
Liabilities |
|||
|
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
Accounts
Payable |
3,130,394 |
2,892,631 |
2,372,864 |
|
Short/Current
Long Term Debt |
2,727 |
2,355 |
395,027 |
|
Other
Current Liabilities |
- |
- |
1,008,238 |
|
Total Current Liabilities |
3,133,121 |
2,894,986 |
2,767,891 |
|
Long Term Debt |
787,517 |
790,169 |
383,782 |
|
Other Liabilities |
709,321 |
697,099 |
765,004 |
|
Deferred Long Term Liability
Charges |
241,905 |
192,447 |
127,008 |
|
Minority Interest |
- |
- |
- |
|
Negative Goodwill |
- |
- |
- |
|
Total Liabilities |
4,871,864 |
4,574,701 |
4,043,685 |
|
Stockholders' Equity |
|||
|
Misc Stocks Options Warrants |
- |
- |
- |
|
Redeemable Preferred Stock |
- |
- |
- |
|
Preferred Stock |
- |
- |
- |
|
Common Stock |
389,657 |
409,386 |
412,822 |
|
Retained Earnings |
2,801,997 |
2,614,014 |
1,939,516 |
|
Treasury Stock |
- |
- |
- |
|
Capital Surplus |
- |
- |
- |
|
Other Stockholder Equity |
(91,755) |
(134,124) |
(217,781) |
|
Total Stockholder Equity |
3,099,899 |
2,889,276 |
2,134,557 |
|
Net Tangible Assets |
2,919,963 |
2,709,482 |
1,955,029 |
Currency in USD
Balance sheet
Quarterly Data
All numbers in thousands
|
Period
Ending |
Oct
29, 2011 |
Jul 30, 2011 |
Apr 30, 2011 |
Jan 29, 2011 |
|
Assets |
||||
|
Current Assets |
|
|
|
|
|
Cash
And Cash Equivalents |
956,932 |
977,763 |
1,377,146 |
1,741,751 |
|
Short
Term Investments |
71,737 |
82,096 |
85,349 |
76,261 |
|
Net
Receivables |
317,177 |
284,496 |
304,051 |
266,219 |
|
Inventory |
3,706,022 |
3,368,082 |
3,014,809 |
2,765,464 |
|
Other
Current Assets |
366,183 |
316,632 |
227,066 |
249,832 |
|
Total Current Assets |
5,418,051 |
5,029,069 |
5,008,421 |
5,099,527 |
|
Long Term Investments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Property Plant and Equipment |
2,708,284 |
2,660,433 |
2,574,896 |
2,460,782 |
|
Goodwill |
179,958 |
180,043 |
- |
- |
|
Intangible Assets |
- |
- |
180,068 |
179,936 |
|
Accumulated Amortization |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Other Assets |
224,687 |
227,581 |
221,085 |
231,518 |
|
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Total Assets |
8,530,980 |
8,097,126 |
7,984,470 |
7,971,763 |
|
Liabilities |
||||
|
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
Accounts
Payable |
3,376,588 |
3,188,490 |
3,099,057 |
3,130,394 |
|
Short/Current
Long Term Debt |
2,912 |
2,854 |
2,798 |
2,727 |
|
Other
Current Liabilities |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Total Current Liabilities |
3,379,500 |
3,191,344 |
3,101,855 |
3,133,121 |
|
Long Term Debt |
785,369 |
786,100 |
786,816 |
787,517 |
|
Other Liabilities |
720,399 |
718,721 |
716,329 |
709,321 |
|
Deferred Long Term Liability
Charges |
462,384 |
295,972 |
256,076 |
241,905 |
|
Minority Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Negative Goodwill |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Total Liabilities |
5,347,652 |
4,992,137 |
4,861,076 |
4,871,864 |
|
Stockholders' Equity |
||||
|
Misc Stocks Options Warrants |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Redeemable Preferred Stock |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Preferred Stock |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Common Stock |
377,140 |
380,980 |
386,107 |
389,657 |
|
Retained Earnings |
2,888,873 |
2,770,482 |
2,768,087 |
2,801,997 |
|
Treasury Stock |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Capital Surplus |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Other Stockholder Equity |
(82,685) |
(46,473) |
(30,800) |
(91,755) |
|
Total Stockholder Equity |
3,183,328 |
3,104,989 |
3,123,394 |
3,099,899 |
|
Net Tangible Assets |
3,003,370 |
2,924,946 |
2,943,326 |
2,919,963 |
Currency in USD
Standard
& Poor’s
|
United
States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks,
Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative |
|
Publication
date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST |
·
We have lowered our long-term
sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and
affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
·
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings
from CreditWatch negative.
·
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal
consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to
falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's
medium-term debt dynamics.
·
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the
effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and
political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative
outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
·
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in
bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes
us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able
to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan
that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
·
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could
lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that
less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal
pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt
trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
TORONTO (Standard &
Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it
lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America
to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed
its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's
removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011,
with negative implications.
The transfer and
convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the
likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and
private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for
debt service--remains
'AAA'.
We lowered our long-term
rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over
raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate
indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public
spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising
revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a
contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation
plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of
the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government
debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the
rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our
perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria
(see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions ," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal
government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which
form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings
off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment
of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by
delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that
the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course
of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The political
brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance
and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable
than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of
default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal
policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences
between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to
bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the
comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged
until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to
relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the
Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for
now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition,
the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in
other entitlements,
the containment of which
we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal
sustainability.
Our opinion is that
elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to
effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent
with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a
consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public
finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more
balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and
private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might
not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the
government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal
adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S.
population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand
(see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely
Cost Even More Green, Now,"
June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's
takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and
the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s
finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much
as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through
2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to
initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed
Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to
recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or
otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
The act further provides
that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2
trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would
mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and
Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage
Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee
might recommend.
We note that in a letter
to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated
total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the
next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal
projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the
CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to
include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In
general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation
of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's
measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the
framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is
finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration
could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1
trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we
maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels
of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue
to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be
consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project
that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the
end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of
sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as
noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous
projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003
tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed
our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue
to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress
reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case
scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near
2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the
outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these
same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of
new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners
lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario,
we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated
74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a
possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable
macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second
round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not
occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for
U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key
reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change
only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose
monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible
that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a
result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in
10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In
this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP
in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios
also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP
data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our
perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when
evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the
revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so
the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real
terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised
data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared
with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish
pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences
of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt
deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a
result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP
growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S.
to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant
peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our
base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt
is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five
sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year
ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%.
By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between
30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at
79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt
burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by
2015.
Standard & Poor's
transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment
reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public
and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service.
Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has
deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of
this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the
Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly
remote.
The outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario
illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could
lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside
scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select
Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other
initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high
earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and
we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt
dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
On Monday, we will
issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds,
government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance,
and structured finance sectors.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
|
Currency |
Unit
|
Indian Rupees |
|
US Dollar |
1 |
Rs.53.30 |
|
UK Pound |
1 |
Rs.82.66 |
|
Euro |
1 |
Rs.68.91 |
RATING EXPLANATIONS
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
>86 |
Aaa |
Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest
capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums |
Unlimited |
|
71-85 |
Aa |
Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit
transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest
and principal sums |
Large |
|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable
factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of
interest and principal sums |
Fairly Large |
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal
commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
26-40 |
B |
Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively
below average. |
Small |
|
11-25 |
Ca |
Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums
in default or expected to be in default upon maturity |
Limited with
full security |
|
<10 |
C |
Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised |
Credit not
recommended |
|
---- |
NB |
New Business |
---- |
This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk
and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a
composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this
report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through
%) are as follows:
Financial
condition (40%) Ownership
background (20%) Payment
record (10%)
Credit history
(10%) Market trend
(10%) Operational
size (10%)
This report is issued at your request without any
risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL)
or its officials.