MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :           

03.01.2012

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

MARSHALLS OF MA INC

 

 

Formerly Known As :

MARSHALL'S, INC

 

 

Registered Office :

770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701

 

 

Country :

United States 

 

 

Financials (as on) :

29.01.2011

 

 

Date of Incorporation :

20.05.1958

 

 

Legal Form :

Corporation for Profit

 

 

Line of Business :

Retailer of apparel and home fashioned products

 

 

No. of Employees :

20,000

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

A

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

Fairly Large

 

Maximum Credit Limit :

USD 2,000,000.

Status :

Good

Payment Behaviour :

Regular

Litigation :

Clear


NOTES :

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail : infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – September 30th, 2011

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

                   (30.06.2011)                  

Current Rating

(30.09.2011)

United States 

a1

a1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


GEOPOLITICS

 

POLITICAL DATA

ECONOMIC DATA

Form of Government: Federal


Economic Risk: Nil

Currency:

Branch Situation: Stable

 

 

IDENTIFICATION

 

Legal Name:

MARSHALLS OF MA INC

Trade Name:

MARSHALLS

 

Legal Address

770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA.

 

Operative Address

770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA.

 

Mailing Address

P.O. BOX 9162 Framingham, Massachusetts 01701, USA.

 

Telephone:

+1 508-390-3000

ID :

042261984

Fax:

+1 508-390-3000

Legal Form:

Corporation for Profit

Email:

info@marshallsonline.com

Registered in:

Massachusetts

Website:

www.marshallsonline.com

Date Created:

1958

Manager:

Michael Macmillan, President.

Date Incorporated:

May 20th, 1958

Staff:

20,000

Stock:

NA

 

 

Value:

NA

Activity:

Retailer of apparel and home fashioned products.

 

 

BANKS

 

Name of the Bank

CITIBANK

Name of the Bank

JPMORGAN CHASE BANK

 


BUSINESS

 

HISTORY

 

The company was formerly known as MARSHALL'S OF TEWKSBURY, INC. On 11/16/1962, it changed its name to MARSHALL'S OF BEDFORD, INC.

 

On 4/26/1973, it changed its name to MARSHALL'S, INC, and finally on 8/21/1996 the company changed its name to the current one, "MARSHALLS OF MA, INC."

 

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY

 

The company operates as a wholesaler and retailer of apparel and home fashioned products.

 

It sells its products through numerous stores and a website.

 

Products/Services description:

 

Activewear, dresses, separates, sportswear, and shoes and athletic footwear for men, women, juniors, boys, girls, and infants, as well as offers lingerie, suits and sport coats, and giftware products.

Sales are:

 

Wholesale, Retail.

Clients:

 

General clientele and various industries.

Operations area:

 

National.

 

 

The company imports from worldwide, depending on the demand.

The company does not export.

The subject employs 20,000 employees.

Comments on staff:

 

This information was not verified by the company. It was provided from outside sources.

PAYMENTS

 

 

Made on a 50 days basis - monitored over the last 12 months.

LOCATION

Headquarters

 

The company is headquartered at:

770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetss 01701, USA.

 

Branches:

 

The company has 15 locations in several states of the USA.

 

 

Shareholders - Manager - Related Companies

 

Listed at the stock exchange:

 

NO

Shareholders Parent Company(ies):

 

The company is privately held. It operates as a subsidiary of The TJX Companies, Inc., a company that trades publicly at NYSE under the symbol "TJX".

 

The TJX Companies, Inc.

770 Cochituate Road

Framingham, MA 01701

Main Number: 508-390-1000

Web: www.tjx.com

Management:

 

Michael Macmillan, President.

 

 

 

Financials - COMMERCIAL TRENDS AND FORECAST

 

As a private company the subject does not publish any financial statements.

We have contacted the accounting department but they refused to provide us any financial data without knowing the name of the inquiring party.

 

However our financial sources could provide us with the following data.

 

Those figures are estimates provided by confidential banking and financial institutions working with the company.

 

 

 

Currency

DATE

USD

2010 (consolidated from mother company)

Turnover

21,942,193,000

Operating Income

2,203,229,000

Net Income

1,343,141,000

Current Assets

5,099,527,000

Fixed Assets

2,872,236,000

Net worth

3,099,899,000

Liabilities

4,871,864

Bank liabilities

790,244

The cash flow is

GOOD

 

 

Currency

DATE

USD

2009 (consolidated from mother company)

Turnover

20,288,444,000  

Operating Income

1,991,071,000

Net Income

1,213,572,000

Current Assets

4,803,856,000

Net worth

2,889,276,000

Liabilities

4,574,701,000

 


Currency

DATE

USD

2008

Turnover

3,840,000,000

Operating Income

83,000,000

Net Income

51,000,000

Current Assets

1,390,000,000

Fixed Assets

780,000,000

Net worth

750,000,000

Liabilities

510,000,000

The cash flow is

NORMAL

 

Comments on the financial data: We have consolidated the financial statements with those of our subject's parent company. We have transcribed the main figures into the chart. Please find enclosed the parent company's detailed financial statement.

Legal Fillings



There are 3 UCC** files listed with the Secretary of State of Massachusetts:

 

There are various claims, lawsuits, and pending actions against the Company and affiliates incident to the operations of its businesses. It is the opinion of management, after consultation with counsel, that the ultimate resolution of such claims, lawsuits and pending actions will not have a material adverse effect on the Company's consolidated financial position, results of operations or liquidity.

 

THE COMPANY IS NOT LISTED ON THE OFAC LIST.*

 

For information:

 

* The Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List is a publication of OFAC which lists individuals and organizations with whom United States citizens and permanent residents are prohibited from doing business.

 

** The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) is one of a number of uniform acts that have been promulgated in conjunction with efforts to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial transactions in all 50 states within the United States of America. 

 

The UCC deals primarily with transactions involving personal property (movable property), not real property (immovable property).

 

It allows a creditor to notify other creditors about a debtor’s assets used as collateral for a secured transaction by filing a public notice (financing statement) with a particular filing office.

 

The Uniform Commercial Code Bureau files and maintains on financial obligations (including IRS liens) incurred by individuals (in business as a sole proprietor), business entities and corporations.

 

 

Rating

 

Local credit bureau gave a GOOD credit rate.

 

The company is in Good Standing. This means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date.

 

 

 Final Opinion

 

This is a big sized American company which employs 20,000 people and has 54 years of experience in the industry.

 

The company is active, in good standing and we have found payment experience recorder. There were several recent lawsuits found against the company suing personal injury, diversity, employment discrimination, and Copyright Infringement among others. It is the opinion of management, after consultation with counsel, that the ultimate resolution of such claims, lawsuits and pending actions will not have a material adverse effect on the Company's consolidated financial position, results of operations or liquidity.

 

The structure is a wholly owned subsidiary of TJX Companies Inc (TJX:NYSE). A big sized American company that has registered for 2010 an estimate of 166,000 employees and revenues exceeding USD 20 Billions.

 

The financial information for our subject's parent company shows that it has been improving its performance year after year and it remains very solid in the market. Since our subject's activities are deeply related to those of its parent company, we believe that it has direct effect on it.

 

Having all this in consideration, a credit line may be considered for USD 2,000,000.

 

 

 

 


SUMMARY

 


FINANCIAL SUMMARY


DEBT COLLECTIONS AND PAYMENTS

Profitability

N.A.

Public Records

NO

 

Indebtedness

N.A.

Payments

REGULAR

 

Cash

NORMAL

 

 

 

 

 

 







 

 

APPENDIX

 

Position

 

Accounting Representative.

Comments

 

The contacted person provided us with the following information: company's name, location, activity, products. However, she refused to provide further information without knowing the name of the inquiring party.

 


Financial

 

Income Statement

 

Annual data

                                                                                                            All numbers in thousands

Period Ending

Jan 29, 2011

Jan 30, 2010

Jan 31, 2009

Total Revenue

21,942,193

20,288,444

18,999,505

Cost of Revenue

16,040,461

14,968,429

14,429,185

Gross Profit

5,901,732

5,320,015

4,570,320

 

Operating Expenses

 

 

Research Development

-

-

-

 

Selling General and Administrative

3,698,503

3,328,944

3,105,089

 

Non Recurring

-

-

(30,500)

 

Others

-

-

-

 

Total Operating Expenses

-

-

-

Operating Income or Loss

2,203,229

1,991,071

1,465,231

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-

-

-

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

2,164,092

1,951,562

1,450,940

 

Interest Expense

-

-

14,291

 

Income Before Tax

2,164,092

1,951,562

1,450,940

 

Income Tax Expense

824,562

737,990

536,054

 

Minority Interest

-

-

-

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

1,339,530

1,213,572

914,886

 

Non-recurring Events

 

 

Discontinued Operations

3,611

-

(34,269)

 

Extraordinary Items

-

-

-

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-

-

-

 

Other Items

-

-

-

Net Income

1,343,141

1,213,572

880,617

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-

-

-

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

1,343,141

1,213,572

880,617

 

Currency in USD


Income Statement

 

Quarterly data

                                                                                                            All numbers in thousands

 

Period Ending

Oct 29, 2011

Jul 30, 2011

Apr 30, 2011

Jan 29, 2011

Total Revenue

5,793,128

5,468,274

5,220,295

6,331,726

Cost of Revenue

4,166,587

3,976,035

3,827,258

4,666,173

Gross Profit

1,626,541

1,492,239

1,393,037

1,665,553

 

Operating Expenses

 

Research Development

-

-

-

-

 

Selling General and Administrative

954,238

923,693

954,474

1,122,081

 

Non Recurring

-

-

-

-

 

Others

-

-

-

-

 

Total Operating Expenses

-

-

-

-

Operating Income or Loss

672,303

568,546

438,563

543,472

 

Income from Continuing Operations

 

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

-

-

-

-

 

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

663,752

559,437

429,646

534,327

 

Interest Expense

-

-

-

-

 

Income Before Tax

663,752

559,437

429,646

534,327

 

Income Tax Expense

257,265

211,099

163,695

203,524

 

Minority Interest

-

-

-

-

 

Net Income From Continuing Ops

406,487

348,338

265,951

330,803

 

Non-recurring Events

 

Discontinued Operations

-

-

-

3,611

 

Extraordinary Items

-

-

-

-

 

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-

-

-

-

 

Other Items

-

-

-

-

Net Income

406,487

348,338

265,951

334,414

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

-

-

-

-

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

406,487

348,338

265,951

334,414

 

Currency in USD


 

Balance sheet

 

Annual Data                            

                                                                                                            All numbers in thousands

Period Ending

Jan 29, 2011

Jan 30, 2010

Jan 31, 2009

Assets

Current Assets

 

 

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

1,741,751

1,614,607

453,527

Short Term Investments

76,261

130,636

-

Net Receivables

266,219

270,588

279,175

Inventory

2,765,464

2,532,318

2,619,336

Other Current Assets

249,832

255,707

274,091

Total Current Assets

5,099,527

4,803,856

3,626,129

Long Term Investments

-

-

-

Property Plant and Equipment

2,460,782

2,287,097

2,201,204

Goodwill

-

-

179,528

Intangible Assets

179,936

179,794

179,528

Accumulated Amortization

-

-

-

Other Assets

231,518

193,230

171,381

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-

-

-

Total Assets

7,971,763

7,463,977

6,178,242

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

 

 

Accounts Payable

3,130,394

2,892,631

2,372,864

Short/Current Long Term Debt

2,727

2,355

395,027

Other Current Liabilities

-

-

1,008,238

Total Current Liabilities

3,133,121

2,894,986

2,767,891

Long Term Debt

787,517

790,169

383,782

Other Liabilities

709,321

697,099

765,004

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

241,905

192,447

127,008

Minority Interest

-

-

-

Negative Goodwill

-

-

-

Total Liabilities

4,871,864

4,574,701

4,043,685

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-

-

-

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-

-

-

Preferred Stock

-

-

-

Common Stock

389,657

409,386

412,822

Retained Earnings

2,801,997

2,614,014

1,939,516

Treasury Stock

-

-

-

Capital Surplus

-

-

-

Other Stockholder Equity

(91,755)

(134,124)

(217,781)

Total Stockholder Equity

3,099,899

2,889,276

2,134,557

Net Tangible Assets

2,919,963

2,709,482

1,955,029

 

Currency in USD


Balance sheet

 

Quarterly Data                                    

                                                                                                            All numbers in thousands

Period Ending

Oct 29, 2011

Jul 30, 2011

Apr 30, 2011

Jan 29, 2011

Assets

Current Assets

 

 

 

 

Cash And Cash Equivalents

956,932

977,763

1,377,146

1,741,751

Short Term Investments

71,737

82,096

85,349

76,261

Net Receivables

317,177

284,496

304,051

266,219

Inventory

3,706,022

3,368,082

3,014,809

2,765,464

Other Current Assets

366,183

316,632

227,066

249,832

Total Current Assets

5,418,051

5,029,069

5,008,421

5,099,527

Long Term Investments

-

-

-

-

Property Plant and Equipment

2,708,284

2,660,433

2,574,896

2,460,782

Goodwill

179,958

180,043

-

-

Intangible Assets

-

-

180,068

179,936

Accumulated Amortization

-

-

-

-

Other Assets

224,687

227,581

221,085

231,518

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

-

-

-

-

Total Assets

8,530,980

8,097,126

7,984,470

7,971,763

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

 

 

 

 

Accounts Payable

3,376,588

3,188,490

3,099,057

3,130,394

Short/Current Long Term Debt

2,912

2,854

2,798

2,727

Other Current Liabilities

-

-

-

-

Total Current Liabilities

3,379,500

3,191,344

3,101,855

3,133,121

Long Term Debt

785,369

786,100

786,816

787,517

Other Liabilities

720,399

718,721

716,329

709,321

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

462,384

295,972

256,076

241,905

Minority Interest

-

-

-

-

Negative Goodwill

-

-

-

-

Total Liabilities

5,347,652

4,992,137

4,861,076

4,871,864

Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-

-

-

-

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-

-

-

-

Preferred Stock

-

-

-

-

Common Stock

377,140

380,980

386,107

389,657

Retained Earnings

2,888,873

2,770,482

2,768,087

2,801,997

Treasury Stock

-

-

-

-

Capital Surplus

-

-

-

-

Other Stockholder Equity

(82,685)

(46,473)

(30,800)

(91,755)

Total Stockholder Equity

3,183,328

3,104,989

3,123,394

3,099,899

Net Tangible Assets

3,003,370

2,924,946

2,943,326

2,919,963

 

Currency in USD


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·         We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·         The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·         More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·         Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·         The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.

 

 


FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.53.30

UK Pound

1

Rs.82.66

Euro

1

Rs.68.91

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

 

 

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