MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :

10.07.2012

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

COMTECH EF DATA CORP.  

 

 

Registered Office :

2114 W 7th St, Tempe, AZ 85281-7227

 

 

Country :

United States 

 

 

Year of Establishment :

1985

 

 

Legal Form :

Private Subsidiary Company

 

 

Line of Business :

Subject develops an assortment of satellite communications equipment for commercial and government applications.

 

 

No. of Employees :

800

 

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

B

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

Small

 

Status :

Moderate

Payment Behaviour :

No Complaints

Litigation :

Clear

NOTES:

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – March 31st, 2012

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

(31.12.2011)

Current Rating

(31.03.2012)

United States 

A1

A1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 

Company name & address 

 

Comtech EF Data Corp. 

2114 W 7th St

Tempe, AZ 85281-7227

United States

Tel:       (480) 333-2200

Fax:      (480) 333-2540

Web:    www.comtechefdata.com

 

 

Registration data   

 

Employees:                  800

Company Type:             Private Subsidiary

Corporate Family:          20 Companies

Ultimate Parent:             Comtech Telecomm. Corp.

Incorporation Date:         1985

Financials in:                 USD (Millions)

Reporting Currency:       US Dollar

Annual Sales:               9.0

Total Assets:                NA

 

 

Business Description     

 

Comtech EF Data develops an assortment of satellite communications equipment for commercial and government applications. It offers a wide range of products, including satellite modems, modem accessories, performance enhancement proxies, vipersat network products, digicast products. It also provides a variety of converters, transceivers, terminals and blockup converters. Located in Tempe, Ariz., the company's capabilities include low density parity check coding; turbo product coding; DoubleTalk Carrier-in-Carrier bandwidth doubling technology; and patented daisy chain protection switching technology. Comtech EF Data serves the satellite operators, cellular service providers, broadcast and satellite news gathering agencies, organizations with large or evolving satellite bandwidth requirements, government agencies, educational institutions, oil and energy companies, maritime enterprises and various others industries.

           

Industry

Industry            Communications Services

ANZSIC 2006:    5809 - Other Telecommunications Services

NACE 2002:      6420 - Telecommunications

NAICS 2002:     517410 - Satellite Telecommunications

UK SIC 2003:    6420 - Telecommunications

US SIC 1987:    4899 - Communications Services, Not Elsewhere Classified

 


           

Key Executives 

 (Emails Available)      

 

 

Name

Title

Robert Mccollum

President

Larry Dumouchel

Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Bob Hansen

Senior Vice President-Global Sales & Marketing

Pete Lorbeck

Information Technology

Ted Binkowski

Senior Vice President-Operations

 

 

News  

 

 

Title

Date

Comtech's subsidiary awarded USD1.3m Modem & Frequency Converter contract
EquityBites (85 Words)

29-Jun-2012

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Receives $1.3 Million Modem & Frequency Converter Contract Award to Support Network Expansion in Asia
Business Wire (491 Words)

28-Jun-2012

Comtech Telecommunications awarded USD1.2m Satellite Modem order
EquityBites (63 Words)

28-Jun-2012

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Awarded $1.2 Million Modem Order to Support U.S. Government Satellite Network
Business Wire (432 Words)

27-Jun-2012

Comtech EF Data wins $3.5 million VSAT Solution orders from Harris CapRock
Datamonitor TechnologyWire (248 Words)

1-Jun-2012

 

 

1 - Profit & Loss Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = USD 1

2 - Balance Sheet Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = USD 1

 

 

Corporate Overview

 

Location

2114 W 7th St

Tempe, AZ, 85281-7227

United States

Tel:       (480) 333-2200

Fax:      (480) 333-2540

Web:    www.comtechefdata.com

           


 

Sales USD(mil):             9.0

Assets USD(mil):           NA

Employees:                   800

Industry:                                    Communications Services

Incorporation Date:         1985

Company Type:             Private Subsidiary

Quoted Status:              Not Quoted

President:                     Robert Mccollum

 

Contents

Industry Codes

Business Description

Product Codes

Financial Data

Key Corporate Relationships

Additional Information

 

Industry Codes

 

ANZSIC 2006 Codes:

5809     -          Other Telecommunications Services

2422     -          Communication Equipment Manufacturing

 

NACE 2002 Codes:

6420     -          Telecommunications

3220     -          Manufacture of television and radio transmitters and apparatus for line telephony and line telegraphy

 

NAICS 2002 Codes:

517410  -          Satellite Telecommunications

334210  -          Telephone Apparatus Manufacturing

 

US SIC 1987:

4899     -          Communications Services, Not Elsewhere Classified

3661     -          Telephone and Telegraph Apparatus

 

UK SIC 2003:

32201   -          Manufacture of telegraph and telephone apparatus and equipment

6420     -          Telecommunications

 

Business Description

Satellite Communications Products & Systems Mfr

 

More Business Descriptions

NEstablishments primarily engaged in manufacturing radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment. Important products of this industry are closed-circuit and cable television equipment; studio equipment; light communications equipment; transmitters, transceivers and receivers (except household and automotive); cellular radio telephones; communication antennas; receivers; RF power amplifiers; and fixed and mobile radio systems.

 

 

Comtech EF Data develops an assortment of satellite communications equipment for commercial and government applications. It offers a wide range of products, including satellite modems, modem accessories, performance enhancement proxies, vipersat network products, digicast products. It also provides a variety of converters, transceivers, terminals and blockup converters. Located in Tempe, Ariz., the company's capabilities include low density parity check coding; turbo product coding; DoubleTalk Carrier-in-Carrier bandwidth doubling technology; and patented daisy chain protection switching technology. Comtech EF Data serves the satellite operators, cellular service providers, broadcast and satellite news gathering agencies, organizations with large or evolving satellite bandwidth requirements, government agencies, educational institutions, oil and energy companies, maritime enterprises and various others industries.

 

Designer and manufacturer of data and RF equipment for satellite communications, including modems, network monitor and control software, TCP/IP performance enhancement proxy, converters, solid state power amplifiers, transceivers and terminals. Software runs on multiple platforms. Products are sold to telemedicine, oil and gas, mining/exploration, SNG/flyways, distance learning, disaster recovery, maritime/shipping, broadcasters, and enterprise solutions companies.

 

Product Codes

Product Code

Product Description

SOF-UT-Y

Network monitor and control software

SUB-ES-A

KU and C band amplifiers

SUB-ES-A

Low noise amplifiers

SUB-ES-CZ

Up/down converters

TEL-MX-O

Modems

TEL-SM-ME

Microwave converters

TEL-SM-SE

RF (radio frequency) equipment

 

 

 

 

Financial Data

Financials in:

USD(mil)

 

Revenue:

9.0

1 Year Growth

NA

 

Key Corporate Relationships

Bank:

Canon Financial Services Inc, Avnet Electronics Marketing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional Information

ABI Number:

301158341

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Report as of 11/01/2011

 

Location

2114 W 7th St
Tempe, AZ 85281-7227
United States

 

County:

Maricopa

MSA:

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ

 

Phone:

480-333-2200

Fax:

480-333-2540

URL:

http://comtechefdata.com

 

ABI©:

301158341

 

Annual Sales:

$9,000,000 (USD)

Employees:

600

 

Facility Size(ft2):

40,000+

 

Business Type:

Private

Location Type:

Subsidiary

Corp. Affiliation:

Comtech Telecommunications

Primary Line of Business:

SIC:

3663-05 - Satellite Equipment & Systems-Mfrs

NAICS:

334220 - Broadcast & Wireless Communications Equip

Secondary Lines of Business:

NAICS:

541613 - Marketing Consulting Svcs

 

443112 - Radio, Tv & Other Electronics Stores

SICs:

5731-07 - Satellite Equipment & Systems-Retail

 

8742-13 - Marketing Programs & Services

 

9999-66 - Federal Government Contractors

 

 

Table of Contents

 

Profile Links

Similar Businesses in the Area

Closest Neighbors

 

External Links

http://comtechefdata.com

 

 

 

Similar Businesses in the Area *

 

Argon ST
6696 Mesa Ridge Rd Ste: A
San Diego, CA 92121-2950

Cal Amp Aercept
25 Empire Dr Ste: 200
Lake Forest, CA 92630-8539

GTX Corp
117 W 9th St Ste: 1214
Los Angeles, CA 90015-1524

RT Logic
12515 Academy Ridge Vw
Colorado Springs, CO 80921-3779

Mica-Tech Inc
1000 Avenida Acaso
Camarillo, CA 93012-8712

Integral Systems Inc
400 Continental Blvd Ste: 6
El Segundo, CA 90245-5074

Lockheed Martin Space Systems
12257 S Wadsworth Blvd
Littleton, CO 80125-8500

Comtech EF Data Corp
2121 S Priest Dr Ste: 116
Tempe, AZ 85282-1177

Arbiter Systems Inc
1324 Vendels Cir Ste: 121
Paso Robles, CA 93446-3806

Integral Systems Inc
985 Space Center Dr Ste: 350
Colorado Springs, CO 80915-3614

 

 

 

 

   * 

Similar Businesses are defined as the closest businesses sharing the same six-digit primary SIC code ( 3663-05 - Satellite Equipment & Systems-Mfrs) regardless of size.

 

 


 

 

Closest Neighbors

 

Valley Presort Services
2137 W 7th St
Tempe, AZ 85281-7227

Patterson Dental Supply Co
2240 W Broadway Rd Ste: 110
Mesa, AZ 85202-1858

Natural Stone Care Products
2131 W 7th St
Tempe, AZ 85281-7227

Optical Gaging Products Inc
1711 W 17th St
Tempe, AZ 85281-6229

ICI Dulux Painting
725 S Madison Dr Ste: 101
Tempe, AZ 85281-7261

Advanced Coordinate Technology
2209 W 1st St Ste: 105
Tempe, AZ 85281-7245

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Family

Corporate Structure News:

 

Comtech Telecomm. Corp.
Comtech EF Data Corp.

Comtech EF Data Corp. 
Total Corporate Family Members: 20 

 

 

Company Name

Company Type

Location

Country

Industry

Sales
(USD mil)

Employees

Comtech Telecomm. Corp.

Parent

Melville, NY

United States

Communications Equipment

612.4

1,268

Comtech EF Data Corp.

Subsidiary

Tempe, AZ

United States

Communications Services

9.0

800

Stampede Technologies Inc

Subsidiary

Dayton, OH

United States

Retail (Technology)

27.4

80

International Datacasting

Branch

San Diego, CA

United States

Audio and Video Equipment

32.0

60

Memotech Inc

Subsidiary

Saint-Laurent, QC

Canada

Communications Services

6.5

27

Comtech EF Data Corp

Branch

Germantown, MD

United States

Electronic Instruments and Controls

7.1

7

Radyne ComStream Corp.

Subsidiary

Phoenix, AZ

United States

Communications Equipment

134.2

187

Comtech Xicom Technology, Inc.

Subsidiary

Santa Clara, CA

United States

Communications Equipment

 

150

Radyne Corporation

Subsidiary

Milwaukee, WI

United States

Electronic Instruments and Controls

 

40

Radyne Comstream Inc

Subsidiary

Boca Raton, FL

United States

Nonclassifiable Industries

 

3

Comtech PST Corp.

Subsidiary

Melville, NY

United States

Communications Equipment

 

180

Comtech Mobile Datacom Corp.

Subsidiary

Germantown, MD

United States

Communications Services

 

100

Comtech Mobile Datacom Corp.

Branch

Colorado Springs, CO

United States

Engineering Consultants

 

 

Comtech Systems, Inc.

Subsidiary

Orlando, FL

United States

Communications Equipment

 

100

Comtech AeroAstro, Inc.

Subsidiary

Ashburn, VA

United States

Aerospace and Defense

 

40

Comtech Aero Astro Inc

Branch

Littleton, CO

United States

Aerospace and Defense

10.5

32

Comtech AHA Corporation

Subsidiary

Moscow, ID

United States

Semiconductors

10.0

25

Comtech Antenna Systems, Inc.

Subsidiary

Saint Cloud, FL

United States

Communications Equipment

0.6

22

Comtech EF Data Corp., Vipersat Networks Group

Subsidiary

Fremont, CA

United States

Communications Services

16.2

20

Hill Engineering Division

Subsidiary

Topsfield, MA

United States

Electronic Instruments and Controls

2.4

12

 

 

Executive report

 

Executives

 

Name

Title

Function

 

Robert Mccollum

 

President

President

 

Biography:

Robert McCollum is senior vice president of Comtech Telecommunications Corporation and president of Comtech EF Data Corporation. Previously, he was founder and president of Comtech Communications Corporation. When Comtech Communications merged with Comtech EF Data, McCollum was appointed president of the combined entity. Prior to joining Comtech, he was a vice president of engineering at EF Data Corporation. McCollum was co founder and vice president of Microwave Systems Engineering, and president when the company was acquired by EF Data Corporation. He also held engineering positions at Hughes Aircraft and Motorola. McCollum has a BSE degree from Arizona State University and an MSE degree from California State University.

 

Education:

Arizona State University, BSE 
California State University., MSE 

 

Ted Binkowski

 

Senior Vice President-Operations

Operations Executive

 

 

Biography:

Ted Binkowski is Comtech EF Data’s senior vice president, operations, where he leads all aspects of production, assembly, quality assurance, purchasing and customer service for both internally designed satellite communications products plus contract manufacturing projects. His vast experience of over 25 years includes roles in operations, business development and sales for high technology, military and aerospace companies. Prior to joining Comtech EF Data, Binkowski held positions with Bowmar, Digital Equipment Corporation, Sperry, Mitel, Spar, DY4 and DRS. His professional certifications and designations include CET, CPIM, CQA and CIM/PrMgr.

 

 

Larry Dumouchel

 

Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Finance Executive

 

 

Biography:

Larry Dumouchel is Comtech EF Data’s chief financial officer and vice president. Previously, he was a co-founder and chief financial officer of Comtech Communications Corporation. When Comtech Communications merged with Comtech EF Data, Dumouchel was appointed chief financial officer. Prior to joining Comtech, he was chief financial officer of Sun Orchard, Inc., where he helped engineer a financial turnaround. Dumouchel also worked as chief financial officer for Microwave System Engineering prior its acquisition by EF Data. Dumouchel has held accounting positions at Arthur Young, Beneficial Life Insurance and Touche Ross, and has over 25 years of financial experience. Dumouchel is a CPA and received his BA degree from California State University, Fullerton.

 

Education:

California State University., BA 

 

 

Steve Birkholz

 

Director-Customer Relations

Sales Executive

 

 

Laura Ford

 

Manager-Inside Sales

Sales Executive

 

 

Bill Gallegos

 

Manager-Inside Sales, Latin America

Sales Executive

 

 

Bob Hansen

 

Senior Vice President-Global Sales & Marketing

Sales Executive

 

 

Biography:

Bob Hansen is senior vice president of worldwide sales and marketing for Comtech EF Data. Prior to EF Data, he held the position of vice president of sales. Hansen has held senior management positions at Houston International Teleport, IDB Systems/MCI Communications and Leitch Technology.

 

Angela Kirkpatrick

 

Director-Inside Sales, Government

Sales Executive

 

 

 

Tina Paulsen

 

Manager-Inside Sales, Asia Pacific

Sales Executive

 

 

 

Dave Seeman

 

Vice President-Sales, Latin America

Sales Executive

 

 

 

Michelle Tomkins

 

Manager-Inside Sales, U.S. & Canada

Sales Executive

 

 

Mark Toppenberg

 

Vice President-Sales, EMEA

Sales Executive

 

 

Marcus Anghel

 

Director-West & US & Canada

International Executive

 

 

Daniel Enns

 

Senior Vice President-Strategic Marketing & Business Development

Marketing Executive

 

 

Education:

University of Manitoba, BSEE 

 

David Liddle

 

Marketing

Marketing Executive

 

 

Education:

Florida Southern College

 

 

Laura Massa

 

Marketing

Marketing Executive

 

 

Sue Lassandro

 

Media Contact

Corporate Communications Executive

 

 

 

Sue Wilcox

 

Media Contact

Public Relations Executive

 

 

Mark Harpenau

 

Help Desk

Information Executive

 

 

Pete Lorbeck

 

Information Technology

Information Executive

 

 

Richard Miller

 

Senior Vice President-New Technology

Information Executive

 

 

Biography:

Richard Miller is senior vice president, new technology for Comtech EF Data. Directing new modem technology developments, Miller has been instrumental in architecting and designing some of the industry's most advanced Forward Error Correction and modulation technologies, including the world's first implementation of Turbo Product Coding in satellite modems. Throughout his tenure with Comtech EF Data, he has held a number of engineering management positions. Previously, Miller was technical director of Paradise Datacom, where he designed a number of satellite modems and switches. He also held the position of senior principal engineer with Hughes Network Systems and designed the industry's first IDR modem and numerous VSAT modem designs. Miller is a Chartered Engineer, an elected Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers in the UK, an Associate of the Institute of Linguists, and holds an Honors degree in Electronic Engineering from the University of Southampton, UK

 

Education:

Case Western Reserve University, BBA (Economics)
Harvard Business School, MBA (Finance)

 

Tom Peterson

 

Information Technology

Information Executive

 

 

Jeffrey Harig

 

Senior Vice President-Engineering

Engineering/Technical Executive

 

 

Education:

Michigan Technological University., BS (Electrical Engineering)
University of Missouri-Rolla, MSEE (Guidance And Control Systems)

 

Stacey Kane

 

Director-Government Programs

Government/Public Affairs Executive

 

 

William M Beaugez

 

Vice President-DoD Programs

Other

 

 

 


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·        We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·        The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·        More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·        Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·        The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.


 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.56.02

UK Pound

1

Rs.86.78

Euro

1

Rs.68.83

 

INFORMATION DETAILS

 

Report Prepared by :

MNL

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

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This report is issued at your request without any risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL) or its officials.