|
Report Date : |
22.11.2012 |
IDENTIFICATION DETAILS
|
Name : |
HANESBRANDS, INC. |
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Registered Office : |
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Country : |
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Financials (as on) : |
29.09.2012 (Consolidated Balance Sheets) |
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Date of Incorporation : |
30.09.2005 |
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Legal Form : |
Public Company |
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Line of Business : |
Subject is engaged in designing, manufacturing, sourcing, and selling
a range of basic apparels. |
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No. of Employees : |
53,300 employees |
RATING & COMMENTS
|
MIRA’s Rating : |
A |
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General
unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for
payment of interest and principal sums |
Fairly Large |
|
Status : |
Good |
|
Payment Behaviour : |
Regular |
|
Litigation : |
Exists |
NOTES:
Any query related to this report can be made
on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com
while quoting report number, name and date.
ECGC Country Risk Classification List – June 30th, 2012
|
Country Name |
Previous Rating (31.03.2012) |
Current Rating (30.06.2012) |
|
|
A1 |
A1 |
|
Risk Category |
ECGC
Classification |
|
Insignificant |
A1 |
|
Low |
A2 |
|
Moderate |
B1 |
|
High |
B2 |
|
Very High |
C1 |
|
Restricted |
C2 |
|
Off-credit |
D |
United States - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The
|
Source
: CIA |
Company name: HANESBRANDS, INC.
Address:
Telephone: +1
336-519-8080
Fax: +1 336-714-3620
Website: www.hanesbrands.com
Corporate ID#: D10884971
State:
Judicial form: Public Company (NYSE = HBI)
Date incorporated: 09-30-2005
Stock: As of October 19, 2012, there were
97,859,546 shares of
the registrant’s common stock
outstanding.
Value: No
par value
Name of manager: Richard
KNOLL
Business:
Hanesbrands Inc., a consumer goods company, engages in designing,
manufacturing, sourcing, and selling a range of basic apparels.
The company offers a portfolio of apparel brands, including Hanes,
Champion,
The company’s operations are divided into five segments: Innerwear,
Outerwear, Hosiery, Direct to Consumer, and International.
Innerwear
The Innerwear segment focuses on core apparel products, such as women’s
intimate apparel, men’s underwear, kids’ underwear and socks, marketed under
various brands. The company also manufactures and markets men’s underwear and
kids’ underwear under the Hanes and Polo Ralph Lauren brand names.
Outerwear
The Outerwear segment offers products in the casualwear and activewear
markets through its Hanes, Champion, Just My Size and Duofold brands, where the
company sells products, such as T-shirts and fleece to both retailers and
wholesalers. The company’s casualwear lines offer a range of clothing for men,
women and children marketed under the Hanes and Just My Size brands. The Just
My Size brand offers casual apparel designed to meet the needs of plus-size
women. In addition to activewear for men and women, Champion provides uniforms
for athletic programs and includes an apparel program, C9 by Champion, at
Target stores.
The company also licenses its Champion name for footwear and sports
accessories.
In its wholesale casualwear category, which the company sometimes refer
to as ‘imagewear’, the company supplies its T-shirts, sport shirts and fleece
products, including brands such as Hanes, Champion, Outer Banks and Hanes
Beefy-T, to customers, primarily wholesalers, who then resell to screen
printers and embellishers.
In 2010, the company acquired GearCo, Inc., known as Gear for Sports, a
seller of licensed logo apparel in collegiate bookstores and other channels.
Hosiery
The Hosiery segment is a marketer of women’s sheer hosiery in the
Direct to Consumer
The Direct to Consumer segment operations include the company’s
value-based (outlet) stores and Internet operations which sell products from
its portfolio of brands. The company sells its branded products directly to
consumers through its outlet stores, as well as its Websites operating under
the Hanes,
The company’s Internet operations are supported by its catalogs.
As of December 31, 2011, the company had 216 outlet stores.
International
The International segment includes products that span across the
Innerwear, Outerwear and Hosiery reportable segments and are primarily marketed
under the Hanes, Champion, Wonderbra, Playtex, Stedman, Zorba, Rinbros,
Kendall, Sol y Oro, Ritmo and Track N Field brands.
It sells in Latin America, Asia,
The company’s customers include Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.; Target
Corporation; Kohl’s Corporation; CVS Caremark Corporation; and SanMar
Corporation.
The company has sales offices in
EIN: 20-3552316
Staff: 53,300
Operations & branches:
At the headquarters, we
find a factory, warehouse and office, owned.
Shareholders:
The Company is listed with
the NYSE under symbol HBI.
As of 06-29-2012, 94% of
the stock was held by institutional and mutual fund owners, including:
|
WELLINGTON
MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLP |
9.52% |
|
FMR LLC |
5.70% |
|
SHAPIRO CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT COMPANY, INC. |
5.13% |
|
VANGUARD GROUP,
INC. (THE) |
5.12% |
|
STATE STREET
CORPORATION |
4.41% |
|
|
3.97% |
|
BARROW, HANLEY
MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS, INC. |
3.91% |
Management:
Richard KNOLL is the Chairman and CEO.
Mr. Richard A. Noll, Rich has been the Chief Executive Officer of
Hanesbrands Inc. since April 2006 and Chairman of the Board since January 2009.
Mr. Noll served as the Chief Executive Officer of Sara Lee Bakery Group, Inc.
of Sara Lee Corp. from July 2003 to July 2005. He served as the President and
Chief Operating Officer of DIM, S.A.S. (formerly, Sara Lee Branded Apparel) at
Sara Lee Corp. from July 2005 to April 2006.
Mr. Noll served as the Chief Executive Officer of Dim since April 1,
2006. Mr. Noll served as Chief Executive Officer of Sara Lee Legwear, Direct
and Mexico Group from July 2001 to July 2002, which included its hosiery, sock
and direct retail businesses along with its Mexican apparel operations. From
1992 to 2002, Mr. Noll held a number of management positions with increasing
responsibilities while employed by DIM. He served as Chief Operating Officer of
Sara Lee Bakery Group from July 2002 to July 2003 and was responsible for the
management of the group's worldwide operations, including fresh, refrigerated
and frozen baked goods. Mr. Noll served as Senior Vice President of Sara Lee
Corp., a holding company of Dim Branded Apparel from December 4, 2002 to
September 2006.
He joined Sara Lee in 1992 as Chief Executive Officer of the
He served as Corporate Vice President of Sara Lee Direct since 1999.
Mr. Noll has been an Executive Director of Hanesbrands since September
2005. He served as a Director of American Apparel & Footwear Association.
Mr. Noll holds a B.S. in Business Administration from
Gerald W. EVANS Jr. is Co-Chief Operating Officer, President of
International Business & Global Supply Chain and President of International
William J. NICTAKIS is Co-Chief Operating Officer and President of US
Operations.
Subsidiaries & Partnership:
|
|
|
|
|
Name of Subsidiary |
|
Jurisdiction of Formation |
|
|
|
|
|
BA International, L.L.C. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Caribesock, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Caribetex, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASA International, LLC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CC Products, LLC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ceibena Del, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
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|
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Event 1, LLC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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GearCo, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GFSI Holdings, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
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GFSI, Inc. |
|
|
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Hanes Menswear, LLC |
|
|
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Hanes Puerto Rico, Inc. |
|
|
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Hanesbrands Direct, LLC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Hanesbrands Distribution, Inc. |
|
|
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|
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|
|
HBI Branded Apparel Limited, Inc. |
|
|
|
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|
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HBI Branded Apparel Enterprises, LLC |
|
|
|
|
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|
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HBI Playtex |
|
|
|
|
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|
HbI International, LLC |
|
|
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|
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HBI Receivables LLC |
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HBI Sourcing, LLC |
|
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Inner Self LLC |
|
|
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|
Jasper-Costa Rica, L.L.C. |
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Playtex Dorado, LLC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Playtex Industries, Inc. |
|
|
|
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|
|
Playtex Marketing Corporation (50% owned) |
|
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|
Seamless Textiles, LLC |
|
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|
|
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UPCR, Inc. |
|
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UPEL, Inc. |
|
|
NON-U.S.
SUBSIDIARIES
|
|
|
|
|
Name of Subsidiary |
|
Jurisdiction of Formation |
|
|
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|
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Bali Dominicana, Inc. |
|
Panama/DR |
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Bali Dominicana Textiles, |
|
Panama/DR |
|
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Bordados Industriales, S. A. de C.V. |
|
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Canadelle Limited Partnership |
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Canadelle Holding Corporation Limited |
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Cartex Manufacturera S. de R. L. |
|
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CASA International, LLC Holdings S.C.S. |
|
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Caysock, Inc. |
|
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Caytex, Inc. |
|
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Caywear, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
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|
Ceiba Industrial, S. De R.L. |
|
Honduras |
|
|
|
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|
Choloma, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
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Confecciones Atlantida S. De R.L. |
|
Honduras |
|
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Confecciones El Pedregal Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
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Confecciones El Pedregal S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
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Confecciones del Valle, S. De R.L. |
|
Honduras |
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Confecciones Jiboa S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
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Confecciones La Caleta |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Confecciones La Herradura S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
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Confecciones La Libertad, Ltda de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
|
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|
DFK International Limited |
|
Hong Kong |
|
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Dos Rios Enterprises, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
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GFSI Canada Company |
|
Canada |
|
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|
GFSI Southwest, S. de R.L. de C.V. |
|
Mexico |
|
|
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|
Hanes Brands Incorporated de Costa Rica, S.A. |
|
Costa Rica |
|
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Hanes Caribe, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanes Choloma, S. de R. L. |
|
Honduras |
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Hanes Colombia, S.A. |
|
Colombia |
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Hanes de Centroamerica S.A. |
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Guatemala |
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Hanes de El Salvador, S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
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Hanes Dominican, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanes Menswear Puerto Rico, Inc. |
|
Puerto Rico |
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Hanes Panama Inc. |
|
Panama |
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Hanesbrands Apparel India Private Limited |
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India |
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Hanesbrands Apparel South Africa (Proprietary) Limited |
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South Africa |
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Hanesbrands Argentina S.A. |
|
Argentina |
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Hanesbrands Australia Pty Limited |
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Australia |
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Hanesbrands Brasil Textil Ltda. |
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Brazil |
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Hanesbrands Canada NS ULC |
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Canada |
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Hanesbrands Caribbean Logistics, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanesbrands Chile SpA |
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Chile |
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Hanesbrands Dominicana, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanesbrands Dos Rios Textiles, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanesbrands El Salvador, Ltda. De C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
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Hanesbrands Europe GmbH |
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Germany |
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Hanesbrands Holdings |
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Mauritius |
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Hanesbrands International (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. |
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China |
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Hanesbrands International (Thailand) Ltd. |
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Thailand |
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Hanesbrands Japan Inc. |
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Japan |
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Hanesbrands (Nanjing) Textile Co., Ltd. |
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China |
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Hanesbrands Philippines Inc. |
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Philippines |
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Hanesbrands Sourcing (India) Private Limited |
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India |
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Hanesbrands (HK) Limited |
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Hong Kong |
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Hanesbrands Poland sp. z o.o. |
|
Poland |
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Hanesbrands ROH Asia Ltd. |
|
Thailand |
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Hanesbrands UK Limited |
|
United Kingdom |
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HBI Alpha Holdings, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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Hanesbrands (Vietnam) Company Limited |
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Vietnam |
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Hanesbrands Switzerland Holdings GmbH |
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Switzerland |
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HBI Beta Holdings, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
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HBI Compania de Servicios, S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
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HbI International Holdings S.ŕ r.l. |
|
Luxembourg |
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HbI International Holdings S.ŕ r.l., Luxembourg, Zurich Branch |
|
Switzerland |
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HbI International/ Jordan Limited Liability Company |
|
Jordan |
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HBI RH Mexico, S. De R.L. de C.V. |
|
Mexico |
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HBI Manufacturing (Thailand) Ltd. |
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Thailand |
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HBI Risk Management Ltd. |
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Bermuda |
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HBI Servicios Administrativos de Costa Rica, S.A. |
|
Costa Rica |
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HBI Socks de Honduras, S. de R.L. de C.V. |
|
Honduras |
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HBI Sourcing Asia Limited |
|
Hong Kong |
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HBI Uno Holdings, Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
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|
H.N. Fibers Ltd (49% owned) |
|
Israel |
|
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Indumentaria Andina S.A. |
|
Argentina |
|
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|
Industria Textilera del Este ITE, S.R.L. |
|
Costa Rica |
|
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Industrias Internacionales de San Pedro S. de R.L. de C.V. |
|
Mexico |
|
|
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Inversiones Bonaventure S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
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J.E. Morgan de Honduras, S.A. |
|
Honduras |
|
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|
Jasper Honduras, S.A. |
|
Honduras |
|
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Jogbra Honduras, S.A. |
|
Honduras |
|
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Manufacturera Ceibena S. de R.L. |
|
Honduras |
|
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|
Manufacturera Comalapa S.A. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
|
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|
Manufacturera de Cartago, S.R.L. |
|
Costa Rica |
|
|
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|
Manufacturera San Pedro Sula, S. de R.L. |
|
Honduras |
|
|
|
|
|
Playtex Puerto Rico, Inc. |
|
Puerto Rico |
|
|
|
|
|
PT. HBI Sourcing Indonesia |
|
Indonesia |
|
|
|
|
|
PTX (D.R.), Inc. |
|
Cayman Islands |
|
|
|
|
|
Rinplay S. de R.L. de C.V. |
|
Mexico |
|
|
|
|
|
Seamless Puerto Rico, Inc. |
|
Puerto Rico |
|
|
|
|
|
Servicios de Soporte Intimate Apparel, S. de R.L. |
|
Costa Rica |
|
|
|
|
|
Socks Dominicana S.A. |
|
Dominican Republic |
|
|
|
|
|
Texlee El Salvador, Ltda. de C.V. |
|
El Salvador |
|
|
|
|
|
The Harwood Honduras Companies, S. de R.L. |
|
Honduras |
|
|
|
|
|
Wonderbra (HK) Limited |
|
Hong Kong |
On attachment:
- 10K 2011
- 3rd 10Q 2012
On October 23, 2012, Hanesbrands Inc. reported unaudited consolidated
earnings results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30,
2012.
For the quarter, the company reported net sales of $1,218,681,000
against $1,185,304,000 a year ago.
Operating profit was $156,508,000 against $144,944,000 a year ago.
Income from continuing operations before income tax expense was
$120,238,000 against $105,809,000 a year ago.
Income from continuing operations was $111,183,000 or $1.11 per diluted
share against $85,070,000 or $0.85 per diluted share a year ago.
Net income was $109,892,000 or $1.09 per diluted share against
$90,832,000 or $0.85 per diluted share a year ago. Total EBITDA was
$176,182,000 against $166,036,000 a year ago. Free cash flow was $287 million.
For the nine months, the company reported net sales of $3,372,465,000
against $3,333,340,000 a year ago. Operating profit was $287,104,000 against
$372,858,000 a year ago.
Income from continuing operations before income tax expense was
$175,772,000 against $252,080,000 a year ago.
Income from continuing operations was $154,228,000 or $1.54 per diluted
share against $203,797,000 or $2.05 per diluted share a year ago.
Net income was $84,293,000 or $0.84 per diluted share against $225,723,000
or $2.28 per diluted share a year ago.
Total EBITDA was $351,588,000 against $435,748,000 a year ago.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $309,405,000 against net
cash used in operating activities of $26,874,000 a year ago.
Capital expenditures were $29,162,000 against $56,085,000 a year ago.
The company revised earnings guidance for the year 2012.
For the period, the company revised guidance for continuing operations
of diluted EPS of $2.54 to $2.60, compared with previous guidance of $2.50 to
$2.60.
Net sales are expected to increase approximately 2% to approximately
$4.52 billion, compared with previous guidance of $4.52 billion to $4.57
billion. Full-year free cash flow is expected to be approximately $500 million,
the high end of the previous range of $400 million to $500 million.
For 2012 guidance, net cash provided by operating activities (GAAP) is
expected to be approximately $545 million and net capital expenditures are
expected to be approximately $45 million, resulting in expectations for
non-GAAP free cash flow of approximately $500 million.
The company provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2012.
For the period, the company's corresponding guidance is net sales of
approximately $1.13 billion to $1.17 billion and EPS of $1.00 to $1.06.
The company expects a gross margin percentage in the mid-30s and an
operating profit margin of slightly more than 13%.
Interest expense is expected to be approximately $33 million, the
effective tax rate is expected to be in the midteens and free cash flow of
another $200 million plus.
Banks: Wells Fargo Bank
...
Legal filings
& complaints:
As of today date, there are numerous cases pending with various Courts
involving the Company as plaintiff or defendant.
Secured debts summary (UCC):
Numerous UCC files listed.
Domestic credit history appears as follow:
|
Monthly Payment Trends - Recent Activity |
|
According to our credit analysts, during the last 6 months, 76% of trade
experience indicates a regular payment.
Payments of imports are currently made with an average of 10 to 20 days
beyond terms.
The Company maintains a
regular business.
The banks and financial
institutions confirmed late payments but remained confident.
The Company is in good
standing.
This means that all local
and federal taxes were paid on due date.
The risk is low.
Our opinion:
A business connection may
be conducted.
Standard
& Poor’s
|
United
States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks,
Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative |
|
Publication
date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST |
·
We have lowered our long-term
sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and
affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
·
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings
from CreditWatch negative.
·
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal
consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to
falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the
government's medium-term debt dynamics.
·
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the
effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and
political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative
outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
·
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in
bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes
us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able
to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan
that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
·
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could
lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that
less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal
pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt
trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
TORONTO (Standard &
Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it
lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America
to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed
its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's
removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011,
with negative implications.
The
transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of
the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public-
and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for
debt service--remains
'AAA'.
We lowered our long-term
rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over
raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate
indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public
spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising
revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a
contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation
plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of
the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government
debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the
rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our
perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria
(see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions ," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal
government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which
form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings
off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment
of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by
delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that
the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course
of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The
political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's
governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less
predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and
the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over
fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences
between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to
bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the
comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged
until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to
relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the
Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for
now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition,
the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in
other entitlements,
the containment of which
we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal
sustainability.
Our opinion is that
elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to
effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent
with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a
consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public
finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more
balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and
private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might
not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the
government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal
adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S.
population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand
(see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely
Cost Even More Green, Now,"
June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's
takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and
the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s
finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much
as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through
2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to
initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed
Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend
by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise
enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
The act further provides
that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2
trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would
mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and
Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage
Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the
committee might recommend.
We note that in a letter
to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated
total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the
next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal
projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the
CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to
include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In
general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation
of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's
measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the
framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is
finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration
could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1
trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we
maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels
of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue
to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be
consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project
that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the
end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign
indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would
continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous
projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003
tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed
our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue
to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress
reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case
scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near
2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook
on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same
macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new
revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners
lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario,
we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated
74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a
possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable
macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second
round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not
occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for
U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key
reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change
only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose
monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible
that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a
result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in
10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In
this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP
in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios
also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP
data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our
perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when
evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the
revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so
the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real
terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised
data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared
with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish
pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences
of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt
deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a
result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth
of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S.
to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant
peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our
base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt
is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five
sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year
ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%.
By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between
30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at
79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt
burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by
2015.
Standard & Poor's
transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment
reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public
and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service.
Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has
deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of
this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the
Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly
remote.
The outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario
illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could
lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside
scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select
Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other
initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high
earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and
we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt
dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
|
Currency |
Unit
|
Indian Rupees |
|
US Dollar |
1 |
Rs.55.20 |
|
UK Pound |
1 |
Rs.87.79 |
|
Euro |
1 |
Rs.70.43 |
INFORMATION DETAILS
|
Report Prepared
by : |
MNL |
RATING EXPLANATIONS
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
>86 |
Aaa |
Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest
capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums |
Unlimited |
|
71-85 |
Aa |
Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit
transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest
and principal sums |
Large |
|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General
unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for
payment of interest and principal sums |
Fairly Large |
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal
commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
26-40 |
B |
Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively
below average. |
Small |
|
11-25 |
Ca |
Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums
in default or expected to be in default upon maturity |
Limited with
full security |
|
<10 |
C |
Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised |
Credit not
recommended |
|
---- |
NB |
New Business |
---- |
This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk
and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a
composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this
report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through
%) are as follows:
Financial
condition (40%) Ownership
background (20%) Payment
record (10%)
Credit history
(10%) Market trend
(10%) Operational
size (10%)
This report is issued at your request without any
risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL)
or its officials.