MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :

13.02.2013

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

E.I. DUPONT DE NEMOURS AND COMPANY

 

 

Registered Office :

1007 Market Street, Wilmington, Delaware 19898

 

 

Country :

United States

 

 

Financials (as on) :

31.12.2011 (Consolidated)

 

 

Date of Incorporation :

04.09.1915

 

 

Legal Form :

Public Company (NYSE = DD)

 

 

Line of Business :

Operates as a science and technology based company worldwide.

 

 

No. of Employees :

70,000

 

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ba

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

Satisfactory

 

Status :

Satisfactory

Payment Behaviour :

Slow but correct

Litigation :

Clear

 

 

NOTES :

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – June 30th, 2012

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

(31.03.2011)

Current Rating

(30.06.2012)

United States

A1

A1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


 

 

UNITED STATES - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

 

The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of $48,100. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions, and the federal and state governments buy needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand capital plant, to lay off surplus workers, and to develop new products. At the same time, they face higher barriers to enter their rivals' home markets than foreign firms face entering US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment; their advantage has narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. Since 1996, dividends and capital gains have grown faster than wages or any other category of after-tax income. Imported oil accounts for nearly 55% of US consumption. Oil prices doubled between 2001 and 2006, the year home prices peaked; higher gasoline prices ate into consumers' budgets and many individuals fell behind in their mortgage payments. Oil prices increased another 50% between 2006 and 2008. In 2008, soaring oil prices threatened inflation and caused a deterioration in the US merchandise trade deficit, which peaked at $840 billion. In 2009, with the global recession deepening, oil prices dropped 40% and the US trade deficit shrank, as US domestic demand declined, but in 2011 the trade deficit ramped back up to $803 billion, as oil prices climbed once more. The global economic downturn, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, investment bank failures, falling home prices, and tight credit pushed the United States into a recession by mid-2008. GDP contracted until the third quarter of 2009, making this the deepest and longest downturn since the Great Depression. To help stabilize financial markets, in October 2008 the US Congress established a $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The government used some of these funds to purchase equity in US banks and industrial corporations, much of which had been returned to the government by early 2011. In January 2009 the US Congress passed and President Barack OBAMA signed a bill providing an additional $787 billion fiscal stimulus to be used over 10 years - two-thirds on additional spending and one-third on tax cuts - to create jobs and to help the economy recover. In 2010 and 2011, the federal budget deficit reached nearly 9% of GDP; total government revenues from taxes and other sources are lower, as a percentage of GDP, than that of most other developed countries. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required major shifts in national resources from civilian to military purposes and contributed to the growth of the US budget deficit and public debt - through 2011, the direct costs of the wars totaled nearly $900 billion, according to US government figures. In March 2010, President OBAMA signed into law the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, a health insurance reform bill that will extend coverage to an additional 32 million American citizens by 2016, through private health insurance for the general population and Medicaid for the impoverished. Total spending on health care - public plus private - rose from 9.0% of GDP in 1980 to 17.9% in 2010. In July 2010, the president signed the DODD-FRANK Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a law designed to promote financial stability by protecting consumers from financial abuses, ending taxpayer bailouts of financial firms, dealing with troubled banks that are "too big to fail," and improving accountability and transparency in the financial system - in particular, by requiring certain financial derivatives to be traded in markets that are subject to government regulation and oversight. Long-term problems include inadequate investment in deteriorating infrastructure, rapidly rising medical and pension costs of an aging population, sizable current account and budget deficits - including significant budget shortages for state governments - energy shortages, and stagnation of wages for lower-income families.

Source : CIA


Company name and address

 

Company name:            E.I. DUPONT DE NEMOURS AND COMPANY

 

Headquarters:               1007 Market Street, Wilmington, Delaware 19898 - USA

                       

Telephone:                    +1 302-774-1000

 

Fax:                              +1 302-773-2631

 

Website:                                   www2.dupont.com

 

 

Corporate ID#:               0049306

 

State:                           Delaware

 

 

Judicial form:                 Public Company (NYSE = DD)

 

Date incorporated:          09-04-1915

 

Stock value:                  932,471,000 shares (excludes 87,041,000 shares of 

                                    treasury stock) of common stock, $0.30 par value,

                                    outstanding at October 15, 2012.

 

 

Name of manager:          Mrs. Ellen J. KULLMAN

 

 

ACTIVITIES & OPERATIONS

 

Business:

 

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company operates as a science and technology based company worldwide.

Its Agriculture segment provides hybrid corn and soybean seeds, and grains under the Pioneer brand name; and herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides. The company’s Electronics & Communications segment supplies materials and systems for photovoltaic products, consumer electronics, displays, and advanced printing. The Industrial Biosciences segment provides a range of enzymes.

The Nutrition & Health segment offers cultures, emulsifiers, gums, natural sweeteners, and soy-based food ingredients. The Performance Chemicals segment offers fluorochemicals, fluoropolymers, specialty and industrial chemicals, and white pigments for various markets, such as plastics and coatings, textiles, mining, pulp and paper, water treatment, and healthcare.

 

The Performance Coatings segment supplies high performance liquid and powder coatings for motor vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEM); the motor vehicle after-market; and general industrial applications, such as such as coatings for heavy equipment, pipes and appliances, and electrical insulation.

The Performance Materials segment provides engineering polymers, packaging and industrial polymers, elastomers, films, parts, and systems and solutions for the automotive OEM and associated after-market industries, as well as electrical, electronics, packaging, construction, oil, photovoltaics, aerospace, chemical processing, and consumer durable goods. The Safety & Protection segment primarily offers nonwovens, aramids, and solid surfaces for the construction, transportation, communications, industrial chemicals, oil and gas, electric utilities, automotive, manufacturing, defense, homeland security, and safety consulting industries.

The Pharmaceuticals segment represents its interest in the collaboration relating to Cozaar/Hyzaar antihypertensive drugs.

The company was founded in 1802 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

 

 

EIN:                  51-0014090

 

Staff:                 70,000

 

 

Operations & branches:

 

At above address, we find the corporate headquarters.

 

The Company maintains several branches in the U.S.

 

 

SHAREHOLDERS & MANAGERS

 

Shareholders:

 

The Company is listed with the NYSE under symbol DD.

 

65% of the stock is held by institutional and mutual fund owners, including:

 

STATE STREET CORPORATION

4.73%

VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE)

4.52%

CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS

3.88%

BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A.

2.62%

INCOME FUND OF AMERICA INC

2.02%

 

 

Management:

 

Mrs. Ellen J. KULLMAN, Chairman and CEO

Mrs. Kullman has been the Chief Executive Officer of EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. since January 1, 2009. She served as the President of EI DuPont de Nemours & Co., from October 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008.

 

 

Mrs. Kullman served as Vice President of DuPont Coatings & Color Technologies Group. She served as Executive Vice President of Dupont Safety & Protection, DuPont Coatings & Color Technologies Group, Marketing & Sales and Safety and Sustainability of Ei Dupont De Nemours & Co. and DuPont Automotive Co. since June 2006. Mrs. Kullman served as Group Vice President of Dupont Safety & Protection of Ei Dupont De Nemours & Co. from February 2002 to 2006 and served as its Group Vice President and General Manager from 2000 to 2002. She served as Executive Vice President of Safety and Sustainability, Pharmaceuticals and Risk Management of Ei Dupont De Nemours & Co. from February 2002 to June 2006. Mrs. Kullman began her career at DuPont in 1988 as Marketing Manager in the medical imaging business. Following two years as Business Director for the x-ray film business, she moved to Printing & Publishing as Global Business Director of electronic imaging. In 1994, she joined White Pigment & Mineral Products as Global Business Director and served as its Vice President and General Manager since 1995. She assumed leadership of two high growth businesses, DuPont Safety Resources in 1998 and Bio-Based Materials in 1999. Mrs.

Kullman served as Group Vice President and General Manager since 2000 with the addition of Corporate New Business Development and Intellectual Assets Licensing. She later assumed responsibility for DuPont Flooring Systems and DuPont Surfaces in 2001. She has been Chairman of the Board of EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. since December 31, 2009. She serves as a Director of Catalyst Inc. She has been a Director of EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. since October 1, 2008 and United Technologies Corp. since January 3, 2011. She serves as a Member of the Board of Overseers at Tufts University School of Engineering and a Member of the Board of Directors at National Safety Council.

She is a Member of the Tufts University Board of Trustees. She served as a Member of the Board of Directors at General Motors Corporation (formerly Motors Liquidation Company) from October 5, 2004 to December 11, 2008.

She served as Director of General Motors Company until December 11, 2008. She is a member of the U.S.-India CEO Forum, the Business Council and co-chair of the National Academy of Engineering Committee on Changing the Conversation. In 2005, Fortune Magazine named Mrs. Kullman to its 50 Most Powerful Women in Business List. She is the winner of the prestigious 2004 Aiming High Award and a member of the Committee of 200.

Mrs. Kullman holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from Tufts University and an MBA from Northwestern University.

 

Nicholas C. FANANDAKIS, CFO

 

 

Subsidiaries &

Partnership:      

 

 

Belco Technologies Corporation

 

Delaware

Christiana Insurance, LLC

 

Vermont

Coastal Training Technologies Corp.

 

Virginia

Danisco A/S

 

Denmark

Danisco Holding USA Inc.

 

Delaware

DPC (Luxembourg) SARL

 

Luxembourg

DuPont (Australia) Ltd.

 

Australia

DuPont (Changshu) Fluoro Technology Co., Ltd.

 

China

DuPont (China) Research & Development and Management Co., Ltd.

 

China

DuPont (Korea) Inc.

 

Korea

DuPont (U.K.) Industrial Limited

 

United Kingdom

DuPont (U.K.) Ltd.

 

United Kingdom

DuPont Agricultural Caribe Industries, Ltd.

 

Bermuda

DuPont Apollo (Shenzhen) Limited

 

China

DuPont Argentina S.R.L.

 

Argentina

DuPont Asia Pacific Limited

 

Delaware

DuPont Asturias, S.L.

 

Spain

DuPont Capital Management Corporation

 

Delaware

DuPont Chemical and Energy Operations, Inc.

 

Delaware

DuPont China Holding Company Ltd.

 

China

DuPont China Limited

 

Hong Kong

DuPont Company (Singapore) Pte Ltd.

 

Singapore

DuPont Coordination Center N.V.

 

Belgium

DuPont de Nemours (Belgium) BVBA

 

Belgium

DuPont de Nemours (Deutschland) GmbH

 

Germany

DuPont de Nemours (France) S.A.S.

 

France

DuPont de Nemours (Luxembourg) SARL

 

Luxembourg

DuPont de Nemours (Nederland) B.V.

 

The Netherlands

DuPont de Nemours Development S.A.

 

Switzerland

DuPont de Nemours Groupe SAS

 

France

DuPont de Nemours Holding SA

 

Switzerland

DuPont de Nemours International S.A.

 

Switzerland

DuPont de Nemours Italiana S.r.l.

 

Italy

DuPont Denmark Holding ApS

 

Denmark

DuPont Deutschland Holding GmbH & Co. KG

 

Germany

DuPont do Brasil S.A.

 

Brazil

DuPont Electronics Microcircuits Industries, Ltd.

 

Bermuda

DuPont Energy Company, LLC

 

Delaware

DuPont Feedstocks Company

 

Delaware

DuPont Global Operations, Inc.

 

Delaware

DuPont Iberica, S.L.

 

Spain

DuPont Industrial (Luxembourg) SARL

 

Luxembourg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DuPont Integration (Luxembourg) S.A.R.L.

 

Luxembourg

 

DuPont International (Luxembourg) SCA

 

Luxembourg

 

DuPont International BV

 

The Netherlands

 

DuPont International Operations SARL

 

Switzerland

 

DuPont Kabushiki Kaisha

 

Japan

 

DuPont KGA B.V.

 

The Netherlands

 

DuPont Mexico S.A. de C.V.

 

Mexico

 

DuPont NLco BV

 

The Netherlands

 

DuPont Operations (Luxembourg) SARL

 

Luxembourg

 

DuPont Operations Worldwide, Inc.

 

Delaware

 

DuPont Operations, Inc.

 

Delaware

 

DuPont Performance Coating France, SAS

 

France

 

DuPont Performance Coating Nederland BV

 

The Netherlands

 

DuPont Performance Coatings (Changchun) Company Limited

 

China

 

DuPont Performance Coatings (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.

 

China

 

DuPont Performance Coatings (U.K.) Ltd.

 

United Kingdom

 

DuPont Performance Coatings Austria GmbH

 

Austria

 

DuPont Performance Coatings GmbH

 

Germany

 

DuPont Performance Coatings Venezuela, C.A.

 

Venezuela

 

DuPont Performance Elastomers, L.L.C.

 

Delaware

 

DuPont Powder Coatings USA, Inc.

 

Delaware

 

DuPont Science and Technologies LLC

 

Russia

 

DuPont Solutions (Luxembourg) SARL

 

Luxembourg

 

DuPont Taiwan Limited

 

Taiwan

 

DuPont Technology (Luxembourg) S.a.r.l.

 

Luxembourg

 

DuPont Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

 

China

 

E.I. DuPont Canada – Thetford Inc.

 

Canada

 

E.I. DuPont Canada Company

 

Canada

 

E.I. DuPont India Private Limited

 

India

 

EKC Technology, Inc.

 

California

 

First Chemical Corporation

 

Mississippi

 

Holding DuPont S.A. de C.V.

 

Mexico

 

Howson Algraphy BV

 

The Netherlands

 

Initiatives de Mexico, S.A. de C.V.

 

Mexico

 

Innovalight Inc.

 

California

 

MECS Inc.

 

Delaware

 

Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.

 

Iowa

 

Solae L.L.C.

 

Delaware

 

 

 

FINANCIALS

 

On attachment:

- 10K 2011

- 3rd 10Q 2012

 

Third-quarter sales 2012 from continuing operations were $7.4 billion or 9 percent below last year, primarily reflecting volume declines in Electronics & Communications and Performance Chemicals, particularly in Asia Pacific. Company sales reflect 5 percent lower volume, 4 percent negative currency impact and a 1 percent net reduction from portfolio changes, which were partly offset by 1 percent higher local prices.

Agriculture sales increased 4 percent on higher volume and prices,

inclusive of a 10 percent currency headwind. Performance Materials and

Nutrition & Health delivered strong earnings growth in the quarter.

The company has commenced a restructuring plan to increase productivity, enhance competitiveness and accelerate growth. The plan will deliver pre-tax cost savings of about $450 million ($300 million in 2013) by eliminating corporate costs supporting Performance Coatings and taking additional cost-cutting actions to improve competitiveness. The restructuring plan includes eliminating about 1,500 positions globally in the next 12-18 months.

In addition, the company remains on track to achieve its full-year 2012 productivity targets for both fixed costs and working capital.

DuPont expects its full-year 2012 earnings from continuing operations,

excluding significant items, to be in a range of $3.25 to $3.30 per share. Prior-year earnings were $3.55 per share on a comparable basis.

 

 

Banks:  US Bank

                        ...

 

LEGAL FILINGS

 

Legal filings & complaints:

 

As of today date, there are several legal filing pending with the various Courts.

 

 

Secured debts summary (UCC):   Several

 

 

COMPANY CREDIT HISTORY

 

Trade references:

 

Date reported:                December 2012

High credit:                    USD 60,000

Now owing:                    0

Past due:                      0

Last purchase:               November 2012

Line of business:            Office supply

Paying status:               10 days beyond terms

 

Date reported:                December 2012

High credit:                    USD 100,000,000+

Now owing:                    0

Past due:                      0

Last purchase:               November 2012

Line of business:            Payroll

Paying status:               As agreed

 

Date reported:                December 2012

High credit:                    USD 18,000

Now owing:                    0

Past due:                      0

Last purchase:               November 2012

Line of business:            Telecommunications

Paying status:               6 days beyond terms

 


Domestic credit history:

 

Domestic credit history appears as follow:

 

Monthly Payment Trends - Recent Activity

 

 

Date

Balance

Current

Up to 30 DBT

31-60 DBT

61-90 DBT

>90 DBT

08/12

$27,174,500

80%

13%

3%

2%

2%

09/12

$28,701,500

77%

15%

4%

2%

2%

10/12

$30,775,200

77%

14%

4%

2%

3%

11/12

$32,086,300

75%

16%

3%

2%

4%

12/12

$30,145,100

77%

13%

3%

2%

5%

01/13

$27,498,700

74%

15%

3%

2%

6%

 

 

National Credit Bureaus gave a medium credit rating.

 

According to our credit analysts, during the last 6 months, 75% of trade experience indicates a regular payment.

 

 

Domestic payments are usually made with an average of 10 to 15 days beyond terms.

 

 

International credit history:

 

Payments of imports are currently made with an average of 5+ days beyond terms.

 

The Company is improving its payments, but the cash is low, due to high inventories and bad conditions of the market.

 

 

Other comments:

 

 

The bank confirmed late payments but remains confident.

 

The Company is in good standing.

This means that all local and federal taxes were paid on due date.

 

The risk is medium.

 

 


Our opinion:

 

 

A business connection may be conducted but we suggest you to check regularly the way of payments.

 

 

 

 

Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·        We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·         The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·         More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·         Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·         The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

 

 

 


 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.53.96

UK Pound

1

Rs.84.49

Euro

1

Rs.72.23

 

 

INFORMATION DETAILS

 

Report Prepared by :

PRL

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

--

NB

New Business

 

--

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

 

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This report is issued at your request without any risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL) or its officials.