|
Report Date : |
05.03.2013 |
IDENTIFICATION DETAILS
|
Name : |
URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. |
|
|
|
|
Registered Office : |
5000 South Broad Street, Philadelphia, PA 19112 |
|
|
|
|
Country : |
United States |
|
|
|
|
Date of Incorporation : |
06.08.1976 |
|
|
|
|
Legal Form : |
Public Company |
|
|
|
|
Line of Business : |
Subject operates lifestyle specialty retail stores under the Urban
Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People, Terrain, and BHLDN brand names in the
United States, Canada, and Europe. |
|
|
|
|
No. of Employees : |
6,970 |
RATING & COMMENTS
|
MIRA’s Rating : |
Ba |
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet
normal commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
Status : |
Satisfactory |
|
Payment Behaviour : |
Slow but correct |
|
Litigation : |
Exists |
NOTES
:
Any query related to this report
can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report
number, name and date.
ECGC Country Risk Classification List – June 30th, 2012
|
Country Name |
Previous Rating (31.03.2012) |
Current Rating (30.06.2012) |
|
United
States |
A1 |
A1 |
|
Risk Category |
ECGC
Classification |
|
Insignificant |
A1 |
|
Low |
A2 |
|
Moderate |
B1 |
|
High |
B2 |
|
Very High |
C1 |
|
Restricted |
C2 |
|
Off-credit |
D |
United States - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of $48,100. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions, and the federal and state governments buy needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand capital plant, to lay off surplus workers, and to develop new products. At the same time, they face higher barriers to enter their rivals' home markets than foreign firms face entering US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment; their advantage has narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. Since 1996, dividends and capital gains have grown faster than wages or any other category of after-tax income. Imported oil accounts for nearly 55% of US consumption. Oil prices doubled between 2001 and 2006, the year home prices peaked; higher gasoline prices ate into consumers' budgets and many individuals fell behind in their mortgage payments. Oil prices increased another 50% between 2006 and 2008. In 2008, soaring oil prices threatened inflation and caused a deterioration in the US merchandise trade deficit, which peaked at $840 billion. In 2009, with the global recession deepening, oil prices dropped 40% and the US trade deficit shrank, as US domestic demand declined, but in 2011 the trade deficit ramped back up to $803 billion, as oil prices climbed once more. The global economic downturn, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, investment bank failures, falling home prices, and tight credit pushed the United States into a recession by mid-2008. GDP contracted until the third quarter of 2009, making this the deepest and longest downturn since the Great Depression. To help stabilize financial markets, in October 2008 the US Congress established a $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The government used some of these funds to purchase equity in US banks and industrial corporations, much of which had been returned to the government by early 2011. In January 2009 the US Congress passed and President Barack OBAMA signed a bill providing an additional $787 billion fiscal stimulus to be used over 10 years - two-thirds on additional spending and one-third on tax cuts - to create jobs and to help the economy recover. In 2010 and 2011, the federal budget deficit reached nearly 9% of GDP; total government revenues from taxes and other sources are lower, as a percentage of GDP, than that of most other developed countries. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required major shifts in national resources from civilian to military purposes and contributed to the growth of the US budget deficit and public debt - through 2011, the direct costs of the wars totaled nearly $900 billion, according to US government figures. In March 2010, President OBAMA signed into law the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, a health insurance reform bill that will extend coverage to an additional 32 million American citizens by 2016, through private health insurance for the general population and Medicaid for the impoverished. Total spending on health care - public plus private - rose from 9.0% of GDP in 1980 to 17.9% in 2010. In July 2010, the president signed the DODD-FRANK Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a law designed to promote financial stability by protecting consumers from financial abuses, ending taxpayer bailouts of financial firms, dealing with troubled banks that are "too big to fail," and improving accountability and transparency in the financial system - in particular, by requiring certain financial derivatives to be traded in markets that are subject to government regulation and oversight. Long-term problems include inadequate investment in deteriorating infrastructure, rapidly rising medical and pension costs of an aging population, sizable current account and budget deficits - including significant budget shortages for state governments - energy shortages, and stagnation of wages for lower-income families.
|
Source
: CIA |
Company name: URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC.
Address: 5000 South Broad Street,
Philadelphia, PA 19112 - USA
Telephone: 215-454-5500
Fax: 215-454-5163
Website: www.urbanoutfittersinc.com
Corporate ID#: 636814
State: Pennsylvania
Judicial form: Public Company (NASDAQ = URBN)
Date founded: August 6, 1976
Stock: 145,531,007 shares
outstanding on September 5, 2012.
Value: USD
0.0001 par value
Name of manager: Richard
A. HAYNE
Business:
Urban Outfitters Inc. operates lifestyle specialty retail stores under
the Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People, Terrain, and BHLDN brand
names in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
Its Urban Outfitters stores sell women’s and men’s fashion apparel,
footwear, accessories, and gifts, as well as apartment wares, such as rugs,
pillows, shower curtains, books, candles, and novelties to young adults aged 18
to 28; and Anthropologie stores provide women’s casual apparel and accessories,
shoes, gifts, and decorative items, as well as home furnishings, including
furniture, rugs, lighting, antiques, table top items, and bedding to women aged
28 to 45.
The company’s Free People stores primarily offer Free People branded
merchandise mix of casual women’s apparel, intimates, shoes, accessories, and
gifts to young contemporary women aged 25 to 30; Terrain store provides
lifestyle home and garden products, antiques, live plants, flowers, wellness
products, and accessories, as well as landscape and design service solutions;
and BHLDN store offers a range of wedding collections consisting of wedding
gowns, bridesmaid frocks, party dresses, assorted jewelry, headpieces,
footwear, lingerie, and decorations.
As of January 31, 2012, it operated 197 Urban Outfitters stores,
168 Anthropologie stores, 62 Free People stores, 1 Terrain garden
center, and 1 BHLDN store.
The company also operates a wholesale business under the Free People
brand name that distributes apparel to other retailers and department stores in
the United States. In addition, it markets its brands directly to consumers
through its e-commerce Websites, including urbanoutfitters.com,
anthropologie.com, freepeople.com, urbanoutfitters.co.uk, urbanoutfitters.de,
urbanoutfitters.fr, anthropologie.eu, shopterrain.com, and bhldn.com, as well
as through its Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People catalogs.
The company was founded in 1970 and is based in Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania.
Staff: 6,970
Operations & branches:
At the headquarters, we
find the corporate headquarters, owned.
As of January 31, 2012, it operated 197 Urban Outfitters stores,
168 Anthropologie stores, 62 Free People stores, 1 Terrain garden
center, and 1 BHLDN store.
Shareholders:
78% of the stock is held by
institutional and mutual fund owners, including:
|
GOLDMAN SACHS
GROUP INC |
10.87% |
|
MASSACHUSETTS
FINANCIAL SERVICES CO - OTHER |
5.96% |
|
WELLINGTON
MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLP |
5.80% |
|
FMR LLC |
4.62% |
|
VANGUARD GROUP,
INC. (THE) |
4.50% |
|
STATE STREET
CORPORATION |
3.12% |
Management:
Richard D. HAYNE is President and Director.
Richard A. Hayne co-founded Urban Outfitters Inc. in 1970 and has been
its President since incorporation in 1976. Mr. Hayne served as Principal
Executive Officer of Urban Outfitters Inc. until May 22, 2007.
Mr. Hayne has been the Chairman of the Board of Directors since
incorporation in 1976.
Mr. Tedford G. MARLOW, Ted has been the Chief Executive Officer of Urban
Outfitters Group at Urban Outfitters Inc. since February 6, 2012.
Mr. Marlow served as the President of Indigo Books & Music Inc.
since April 1, 2011. He served as Executive Director of Business Development at
Urban
Outfitters Inc. and served as its President of Urban Brand Worldwide
from July 2001 to April 12, 2010. From September 2000 to July 2001, Mr. Marlow
served as Executive Vice President of Merchandising, Product Development,
Production and Marketing at Chico's FAS Inc. He served as Senior Vice President
at Saks Fifth Avenue from November 1998 to September 2000, where he was
responsible for all Saks Fifth Avenue private brand product development. From
January 1995 to November 1998, Mr. Marlow served as President and Chief
Executive Officer of Henri Bendel, a division of The Limited, Inc. He serves as
Director of Indigo Books & Music Inc.
Mr. David MCCREIGHT has been the Chief Executive Officer of
Anthropologie, Inc. at Urban Outfitters Inc. since November 15, 2011.
Mr. McCreight served as the President of Under Armour from 2008 to 2010.
He served as President of Lands' End, Inc. of Sears Holdings Corporation from
October 19, 2005 to July 2008 and served as its Executive Vice President of
Merchandising. Mr. McCreight served as an Interim President of Lands' End,
Inc., from August 2005 to December 2005 and served as its Senior Vice President
of Core Merchandising since December 1, 2003 until 2005.
He joined Lands' End in 2003 as Chief Merchant. He joined Sears in 2003
after working for Disney Stores Worldwide as Senior Vice President and General
Merchandising Manager of Disney Stores from 2001 to 2003.
He served as President of Smith and Hawken and began his career with
roles within the merchant organizations at Saks, The May Company and The
Limited.
Mr. Francis J. CONFORTI, Frank has been Chief Financial Officer of Urban
Outfitters Inc. since April 3, 2012.
Mr. Conforti has been the Chief Accounting Officer of Urban Outfitters
Inc. since March 5, 2010 and Controller since February 2009.
Mr. Conforti has been with Urban Outfitters for three years. He served
as Director of Finance and SEC Reporting at Urban Outfitters since March 2007.
Mr. Conforti served as Principal Accounting Officer and Director, Accounting of
Allied Security Holdings LLC, the holding company of AlliedBarton Security
Services LLC. Mr. Conforti served as the Director of Accounting and Principal
Accounting Officer of AlliedBarton Security Services LLC. He worked for
AlliedBarton Security Systems LLC for five years, serving as Controller for
three years.
He is a Certified Public Accountant.
Subsidiaries & Partnership:
|
Subsidiary |
|
Jurisdiction of Organization |
|
Anthropologie, Inc. |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Urban Outfitters Wholesale, Inc. |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Urban Outfitters UK Limited |
|
United Kingdom |
|
UO Merchandise, Inc. |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Urban Outfitters West LLC |
|
California |
|
UO Fenwick, Inc. |
|
Delaware |
|
Urban Outfitters Ireland Limited |
|
Ireland |
|
Free People of PA LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
UOGC, Inc. |
|
Florida |
|
Freepeople.com LLC |
|
Delaware |
|
U.O. Real Estate LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
U.O. Real Estate Holding I LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
U.O. Real Estate Holding II LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Leifsdottir.com LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Leifsdottir LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Urban Outfitters
Denmark (Branch of URBN UK Limited, UK) |
|
Denmark |
|
Urban Outfitters i Sverige AB |
|
Sweden |
|
UO Third, Inc. |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
UO Netherlands BV |
|
Netherlands |
|
UO Netherlands Holding BV |
|
Netherlands |
|
Urban Outfitters Belgium BVBA |
|
Belgium |
|
Urban Outfitters Germany GmbH |
|
Germany |
|
HK Sourcing Limited |
|
Hong Kong |
|
Terrain Merchandising LLC |
|
Delaware |
|
Terrain LLC |
|
Delaware |
|
Terrain Farm LLC |
|
Delaware |
|
Terrain East LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
J. Franklin Styer Nurseries, Inc. |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
URBN UK Limited |
|
United Kingdom |
|
URBN NL Holding CV |
|
Netherlands |
|
UO (Bermuda) Limited |
|
Bermuda |
|
Anthropologie UK Limited |
|
United Kingdom |
|
BHLDN LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
BHLDN.com LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
UO.com LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
Anthropologie.com LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
|
URBN Holding, Inc. |
|
Delaware |
|
UO US LLC |
|
Delaware |
|
URBN Canada Retail, Inc. |
|
Canada |
|
BHLDN Merchandising LLC |
|
Pennsylvania |
FINANCIALS
On attachment:
- 10K 2011
- 3rd 10Q 2012
On 11-19-2012, Urban Outfitters Inc. reported unaudited consolidated
earnings results for the third quarter and nine months ended October 31, 2012.
For the quarter, the company reported net sales were increased by 14%
record of $693 million compared to $610 million a year ago. This increase was
driven by a strong direct-to-consumer growth rate of 36% and an $18 million
increase in non-comparable net store sales, which includes 11 new stores opened
during the quarter. Operating income was increased by 27% to $94 million
compared to $73.4 million a year ago. Income before income taxes was $93.6
million compared to $75.4 million a year ago. Net income was $59.5 million or
$0.40 per diluted share compared to net income of $50.7 million or $0.33 per
diluted share a year ago.
For the nine months, net sales were $1,938.1 million compared to
$1,743.2 million a year ago. Income from operations was $242.4 million compared
to $220.2 million a year ago. Income before income taxes was $242.9 million
compared to $224.5 million a year ago. Net income was $154.8 million or $1.06
per diluted share compared to net income of $146 million or $0.91 per diluted
share a year ago. For the fiscal 2013, the company expects to open
approximately 49 new stores with approximately 10 new stores in the fourth
quarter. For fiscal 2013, capital expenditures are planned at $190 million to $210
million, driven primarily by new stores, the expansion of home office and the
completion of new fulfillment center in Reno, Nevada. Finally, fiscal 2013
annual effective tax rate is planned to be approximately 36%.
Banks: JP Morgan Chase Bank
Bank of America
The Bank of New York
…
LEGAL FILINGS
Legal filings & complaints:
State: Pennsylvania
Case number: 2:12-cv-03961-TON
Plaintiff: THE HANOVER INSURANCE COMPANY
Defendant: URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. et al
THOMAS N. ONEILL, JR, presiding
Date filed: 07/12/2012
Date of last filing: 11/15/2012
Cause: insurance contract
State: New York
Case number: 1:12-cv-06501-LTS
Plaintiff: MPD Accessories B.V.
Defendant: Urban Outfitters, Inc. et al
Laura Taylor Swain, presiding
Date filed: 08/24/2012
Date of last filing: 11/20/2012
Cause: Copyright infringement
Secured debts summary (UCC):
Several
COMPANY CREDIT HISTORY
Trade references:
Date reported: November
2012
High credit: USD
55,000
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: October
2012
Line of business: Office supply
Paying status: On
terms
Date reported: November
2012
High credit: USD
10,000,000+
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: October
2012
Line of business: Payroll
Paying status: As
agreed
Date reported: November
2012
High credit: USD
18,000
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: October 2012
Line of business: Telecommunications
Paying status: On
terms
Domestic credit history:
Domestic credit history
appears as follow:
|
Monthly Payment Trends - Recent Activity |
|
National Credit Bureaus
gave a correct credit rating.
According to our credit analysts, during the last 6 months, 62% of trade
experience indicates a regular payment.
International credit history:
Payments of imports are currently made with an average of 5 to 10 days
beyond terms.
Other comments:
The Company maintains a
strong business.
The Company is in good
standing.
This means that all local
and federal taxes were paid on due date.
In spite of late payments
noted, the risk is low.
Our opinion:
A business connection may
be conducted.
Standard
& Poor’s
|
United
States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks,
Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative |
|
Publication
date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST |
·
We have lowered our long-term
sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and
affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
·
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings
from CreditWatch negative.
·
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal
consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to
falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the
government's medium-term debt dynamics.
·
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the
effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and
political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative
outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
·
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in
bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes
us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able
to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan
that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
·
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could
lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that
less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal
pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt
trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
TORONTO (Standard &
Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it
lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America
to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed
its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's
removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011,
with negative implications.
The
transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of
the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public-
and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for
debt service--remains
'AAA'.
We lowered our long-term
rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over
raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate
indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public
spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues
is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and
fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that
Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount
that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by
the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the
rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our
perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see
"Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions ," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal
government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which
form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings
off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment
of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by
delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that
the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course
of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The
political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's
governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less
predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and
the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over
fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the
differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily
difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short
of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had
envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able
to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating
to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears
that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In
addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little
change in other entitlements,
the containment of which
we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal
sustainability.
Our opinion is that
elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to
effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent
with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions," June 30, 2011,
especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a
consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public
finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more
balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and
private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might
not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the
government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal
adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S.
population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand
(see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely
Cost Even More Green, Now,"
June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's
takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and
the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s
finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much
as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through
2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to
initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed
Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to
recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or
otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
The act further provides
that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2
trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would
mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and
Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage
Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the
committee might recommend.
We note that in a letter
to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated
total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the
next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal
projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the
CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to
include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In
general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation
of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's
measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the
framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is
finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration
could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1
trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we
maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels
of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue
to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be
consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project
that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the
end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of
sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as
noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous
projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003
tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed
our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue
to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress
reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case
scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near
2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the
outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these
same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of
new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners
lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario,
we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated
74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a
possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable
macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second
round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not
occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for
U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key
reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change
only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose
monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible
that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a
result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in
10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In
this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP
in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios
also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP
data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our
perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when
evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the
revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so
the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real
terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised
data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared
with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish
pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences
of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt
deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a
result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP
growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S.
to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant
peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our
base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt
is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five
sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year
ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%.
By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between
30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at
79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt
burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by
2015.
Standard & Poor's
transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment
reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public
and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service.
Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has
deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of
this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the
Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.
The outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario
illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could
lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside
scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select
Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other
initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high
earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and
we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt
dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
|
Currency |
Unit
|
Indian
Rupees |
|
US Dollar |
1 |
Rs.54.48 |
|
UK Pound |
1 |
Rs.82.71 |
|
Euro |
1 |
Rs.71.27 |
INFORMATION DETAILS
|
Report
Prepared by : |
NLM |
RATING EXPLANATIONS
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
>86 |
Aaa |
Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the
strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums |
Unlimited |
|
71-85 |
Aa |
Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for
credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of
interest and principal sums |
Large |
|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy.
General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory
capability for payment of interest and principal sums |
Fairly
Large |
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet
normal commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
26-40 |
B |
Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems
comparatively below average. |
Small |
|
11-25 |
Ca |
Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and
principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity |
Limited
with full security |
|
<10 |
C |
Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be
exercised |
Credit
not recommended |
|
-- |
NB |
New
Business |
-- |
This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s
credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated
from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of
this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated
through %) are as follows:
Financial
condition (40%) Ownership
background (20%) Payment
record (10%)
Credit
history (10%) Market
trend (10%) Operational
size (10%)
This report is issued at your request without any
risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL)
or its officials.