MIRA INFORM REPORT

 

 

Report Date :

27.11.2013

 

IDENTIFICATION DETAILS

 

Name :

PATOL LTD.

 

 

Registered Office :

Rectory Road, Padworth Common Reading, RG7 4JD

 

 

Country :

United Kingdom

 

 

Date of Incorporation :

01.12.1977

 

 

Legal Form :

Private Independent

 

 

Line of Business :

·        Sales, installation and maintenance of fire detection and protection systems.

·        Subject is Fire, Security & Process Control. Industrial & Military electronic equipment and safety systems. Linear Heat Detectors, sensors and specialist monitors. Project Design and System Maintenance

 

 

No. of Employees :

25

 

RATING & COMMENTS

 

MIRA’s Rating :

Ca

 

RATING

STATUS

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

Limited with full security

 

Status :

Moderate

Payment Behaviour :

Slow

Litigation :

Clear

 

NOTES:

Any query related to this report can be made on e-mail: infodept@mirainform.com while quoting report number, name and date.

 

ECGC Country Risk Classification List – March, 31st, 2013

 

Country Name

Previous Rating

(31.12.2012)

Current Rating

(31.03.2013)

United Kingdom

A1

A1

 

Risk Category

ECGC Classification

Insignificant

 

A1

Low

 

A2

Moderate

 

B1

High

 

B2

Very High

 

C1

Restricted

 

C2

Off-credit

 

D

 


 

united kingdom - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

 

The UK, a leading trading power and financial center, is the second largest economy in Europe after Germany. Over the past two decades, the government has greatly reduced public ownership and contained the growth of social welfare programs. Agriculture is intensive, highly mechanized, and efficient by European standards, producing about 60% of food needs with less than 2% of the labor force. The UK has large coal, natural gas, and oil resources, but its oil and natural gas reserves are declining and the UK became a net importer of energy in 2005. Services, particularly banking, insurance, and business services, account by far for the largest proportion of GDP while industry continues to decline in importance. After emerging from recession in 1992, Britain's economy enjoyed the longest period of expansion on record during which time growth outpaced most of Western Europe. In 2008, however, the global financial crisis hit the economy particularly hard, due to the importance of its financial sector. Sharply declining home prices, high consumer debt, and the global economic slowdown compounded Britain's economic problems, pushing the economy into recession in the latter half of 2008 and prompting the then BROWN (Labour) government to implement a number of measures to stimulate the economy and stabilize the financial markets; these include nationalizing parts of the banking system, temporarily cutting taxes, suspending public sector borrowing rules, and moving forward public spending on capital projects. Facing burgeoning public deficits and debt levels, in 2010 the CAMERON-led coalition government (between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats) initiated a five-year austerity program, which aimed to lower London's budget deficit from over 10% of GDP in 2010 to nearly 1% by 2015. In November 2011, Chancellor of the Exchequer George OSBORNE announced additional austerity measures through 2017 because of slower-than-expected economic growth and the impact of the euro-zone debt crisis. The CAMERON government raised the value added tax from 17.5% to 20% in 2011. It has pledged to reduce the corporation tax rate to 21% by 2014. The Bank of England (BoE) implemented an asset purchase program of up to Ł375 billion (approximately $605 billion) as of December 2012. During times of economic crisis, the BoE coordinates interest rate moves with the European Central Bank, but Britain remains outside the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In 2012, weak consumer spending and subdued business investment weighed on the economy. GDP fell 0.1%, and the budget deficit remained stubbornly high at 7.7% of GDP. Public debt continued to increase.

 

Source : CIA

 


Company name and address

 

PATOL LTD.                 

 

Rectory Road, Padworth Common Reading, RG7 4JD

United Kingdom

(Trading Address)
Registered Address

 

 

Tel:

0118 970 1701

Fax:

0118 970 1458

 

www.patol.co.uk

 

Employees:

25

Company Type:

Private Independent

 

 

Quoted Status:

Non-quoted Company

Incorporation Date:

01-Dec-1977

Auditor:

Whiting & Partners

Financials in:

USD (In Millions)

Fiscal Year End:

31-Mar-2012

Reporting Currency:

British Pound Sterling

Annual Sales:

NA

Total Assets:

1.8

                                         

 

Business Description          

 

 

PATOL - Fire, Security & Process Control. Industrial & Military electronic equipment and safety systems. Linear Heat Detectors, sensors and specialist monitors. Project Design and System Maintenance

 

 

Industry            

 

 

Industry

Electrical Equipment and Appliances Manufacturing

ANZSIC 2006:

2439 - Other Electrical Equipment Manufacturing

ISIC Rev 4:

2790 - Manufacture of other electrical equipment

NACE Rev 2:

2790 - Manufacture of other electrical equipment

NAICS 2012:

335999 - All Other Miscellaneous Electrical Equipment and Component Manufacturing

UK SIC 2007:

2790 - Manufacture of other electrical equipment

US SIC 1987:

3699 - Electrical Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies, Not Elsewhere Classified

 

 

Key Executives 

 

Name

Title

Marguerite Patricia Jenkins

Director, Secretary

Brian Alan Jenkins

Director

Mark Gary Jenkins

Director

Kelvin Robert Miller

Director

 

     

News

 

Title

Date

Studies from University of Sao Paulo Have Provided New Data on DNA Research
Life Science Weekly (454 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Studies from University of Sao Paulo Provide New Data on Medical Research
Health & Medicine Week (363 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Reports on Intercellular Signaling Peptides and Proteins from University of Sao Paulo Provide New Insights
Health & Medicine Week (508 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Investigators from University of Bari Zero in on Botany
Life Science Weekly (303 Words)

13-Nov-2013

30,000 families become self-reliant thru' vegetables cultivation
Bangladesh Government News (508 Words)

9-Nov-2013

Investigators at University of Santiago Report Findings in Veterinary Parasitology
Veterinary Week (355 Words)

7-Nov-2013

 

 

Financial Summary

 

 

FYE: 31-Mar-2012

USD (mil)

Key Figures

 

Current Assets

1.05

Fixed Assets

0.78

Total Liabilities

0.60

Net Worth

0.96

 

Key Ratios

 

Current Ratio

1.74

Acid Test

1.25

Debt Gearing

26.68

 

Registered No.(UK):       01341651

 

1 - Profit & Loss Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = GBP 0.6267523
2 - Balance Sheet Item Exchange Rate: USD 1 = GBP 0.6281078

 

 

Corporate Overview

 

Location
Rectory Road
Padworth Common
Reading, RG7 4JD
Berkshire County
United Kingdom

 

Tel:

0118 970 1701

Fax:

0118 970 1458

 

www.patol.co.uk

Sales GBP(mil):

NA

Assets GBP(mil):

1.2

Employees:

25

Fiscal Year End:

31-Mar-2012

 

Industry:

Electronic Instruments and Controls

Registered Address:
Greenwood House Greenwood Cour
Bury St Edmunds, IP32 7GY
United Kingdom

 

Incorporation Date:

01-Dec-1977

Company Type:

Private Independent

Quoted Status:

Not Quoted

Previous Name:

Depperdale (Fire Engineering) Ltd.

Registered No.(UK):

01341651

 

Director:

Mark Gary Jenkins

 

 

Industry Codes

 

ANZSIC 2006 Codes:

2439

-

Other Electrical Equipment Manufacturing

 

ISIC Rev 4 Codes:

2790

-

Manufacture of other electrical equipment

 

NACE Rev 2 Codes:

2790

-

Manufacture of other electrical equipment

 

NAICS 2012 Codes:

335999

-

All Other Miscellaneous Electrical Equipment and Component Manufacturing

 

US SIC 1987:

3699

-

Electrical Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies, Not Elsewhere Classified

 

UK SIC 2007:

2790

-

Manufacture of other electrical equipment

 

 

Business Description

 

Sales, installation and maintenance of fire detection and protection systems.

  •  

 

More Business Descriptions

Cable and Wire Supply and Distribution

PATOL - Fire, Security & Process Control. Industrial & Military electronic equipment and safety systems. Linear Heat Detectors, sensors and specialist monitors. Project Design and System Maintenance

 

 

Financial Data

 

Financials in:

GBP(mil)

 

Assets:

1.2

Current Assets:

0.7

 

Fixed Assets:

0.5

 

Long Term Debt:

0.2

 

Total Liabilities:

0.5

 

Issued Capital:

0.0

 

Working Capital:

0.3

 

Net Worth:

0.6

 

 

 

Date of Financial Data:

31-Mar-2012

 

1 Year Growth

NA

 

 

Key Corporate Relationships

 

Auditor:

Whiting & Partners

Bank:

Barclays Bank PLC

 

Auditor:

Whiting & Partners

 

Auditor History

Whiting & Partners

31-Mar-2012

Whiting & Partners

31-Mar-2011

Whiting And Partners

31-Mar-2010

Whiting And Partners

31-Mar-2009

Whiting And Partners

31-Mar-2008

 

 

 

Executives Report

 

Board of Directors

Name

Title

Function

Marguerite Patricia Jenkins

 

Director, Secretary

Director/Board Member

Age: 71

Mark Gary Jenkins

 

Director

Director/Board Member

 

 

Age: 51

Brian Alan Jenkins

 

Director

Director/Board Member

 

 

Age: 73

Kelvin Robert Miller

 

Director

Director/Board Member

 

 

Age: 58

 

Executives

 

Name

Title

Function

Marguerite Patricia Jenkins

 

Director, Secretary

Company Secretary

Age: 71

 

Directors and Shareholders Report

 

Main Office Address:
Rectory Road
Reading
United Kingdom RG7 4JD

Tel: 0118 970 1701
Fax: 0118 970 1458
URL: http://www.patol.co.uk

Annual Return Date: 11 May 2013

 

Individual Directors


 

Name

Status

DOB

Filed Address

Appointment Date

Resignation Date

Summary of Directorships

 

Marguerite Patricia
Jenkins

Current

16 Jun 1942

Old Rectory Cottage Rectory Road, Padworth,
Reading, Berkshire RG7 4JD

10 Oct 2001

NA

Current:7
Previous:0
Disqualifications:0

 

Brian Alan
Jenkins

Current

18 Aug 1940

Old Rectory Cottage Rectory Road, Padworth,
Reading, Berkshire RG7 4JD

04 Apr 1991

NA

Current:4
Previous:1
Disqualifications:0

 

Kelvin Robert
Miller

Current

22 Sep 1955

18 Mays Road,
Wokingham, Berkshire RG40 1RW

10 Apr 2012

NA

Current:1
Previous:0
Disqualifications:0

 

Mark Gary
Jenkins

Current

02 Jan 1962

Old Rectory Cottage Rectory Road, Padworth,
Reading, Berkshire RG7 4JD

04 Apr 1991

NA

Current:1
Previous:0
Disqualifications:0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Directors


 

There are no corporate directors for this company.

 

 

Individual Secretaries


 

Name

Status

DOB

Filed Address

Appointment Date

Resignation Date

Summary of Directorships

 

Marguerite Patricia
Jenkins

Current

16 Jun 1942

Old Rectory Cottage Rectory Road, Padworth,
Reading, Berkshire RG7 4JD

25 Jan 1995

NA

Current:7
Previous:0
Disqualifications:0

 

Richard Antony
France

Previous

23 Jul 1946

21 Hobbis Drive,
Maidenhead, Berkshire SL6 5AN

04 Apr 1991

25 Jan 1995

Current:2
Previous:5
Disqualifications:0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Secretaries


 

There are no corporate secretaries for this company.

 

 

Individual Shareholders


 

Name

Share Details
(As Reported)

Share Type

# of Shares

Share Price (GBP)

Share Value (GBP)

% of Total Shares

Brian Alan Jenkins

99 Ordinary GBP 1.00

Ordinary

99

1.00

99.00

38.08

Genevieve Bailhache-Graham

60 B Shares GBP 1.00

B Shares

60

1.00

60.00

23.08

Kelvin Robert Miller

100 B Shares GBP 1.00

B Shares

100

1.00

100.00

38.46

Marguerite Patricia Jenkins

1 Ordinary GBP 1.00

Ordinary

1

1.00

1.00

0.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Shareholders


 

There are no corporate shareholders for this company.

 

 

 

News

 

Studies from University of Sao Paulo Have Provided New Data on DNA Research
Life Science Weekly (454 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Studies from University of Sao Paulo Provide New Data on Medical Research
Health & Medicine Week (363 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Reports on Intercellular Signaling Peptides and Proteins from University of Sao Paulo Provide New Insights
Health & Medicine Week (508 Words)

20-Nov-2013

Investigators from University of Bari Zero in on Botany
Life Science Weekly (303 Words)

13-Nov-2013

30,000 families become self-reliant thru' vegetables cultivation
Bangladesh Government News (508 Words)

09-Nov-2013

Investigators at University of Santiago Report Findings in Veterinary Parasitology
Veterinary Week (355 Words)

07-Nov-2013

New Findings from Federal University in the Area of Acinetobacter baumannii Reported
Malaria Weekly (350 Words)

06-Nov-2013

Studies from University Hospital Further Understanding of Tissue Antigens
Health & Medicine Week (314 Words)

06-Nov-2013

New Hepatitis B Virus Study Results Reported from Federal University
Hepatitis Weekly (489 Words)

06-Nov-2013

Investigators at University of Naples Federico II Discuss Findings in Adipokines
Life Science Weekly (358 Words)

30-Oct-2013

Researchers' Work from Federal University Focuses on Stem Cells
Cancer Weekly (348 Words)

23-Oct-2013

 

 

Annual Profit & Loss

 

Financials in: USD (mil)

 

Except for share items (millions) and per share items (actual units)

 

 

 

31-Mar-2012

31-Mar-2011

31-Mar-2010

31-Mar-2009

31-Mar-2008

Period Length

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

Filed Currency

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

Exchange Rate (Period Average)

0.626752

0.643394

0.627794

0.592803

0.498361

Consolidated

No

No

No

No

No

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnover (UK)

-

0.2

-

-

-

Turnover (Exports)

-

1.7

-

-

-

Total Turnover

-

1.8

-

-

-

Cost of Sales

-

0.7

-

-

-

Gross Profit

-

1.1

-

-

-

Depreciation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other Expenses

-

0.9

-

-

-

Other Income

-

0.0

-

-

-

Interest Paid

-

0.0

-

-

-

Exceptional Income

-

0.0

-

-

-

Profit Before Taxes

-

0.2

-

-

-

Tax Payable / Credit

-

0.1

-

-

-

Extraordinary Items/Debits

-

0.0

-

-

-

Dividends

-

0.0

-

-

-

Profit After Taxes

-

0.2

-

-

-

Minority Interests (Profit & Loss)

-

0.0

-

-

-

Non Audit Fees

-

0.0

-

-

-

Directors Remuneration

-

0.0

-

-

-

 

 

Annual Balance Sheet

 

Financials in: USD (mil)

 

 

 

31-Mar-2012

31-Mar-2011

31-Mar-2010

31-Mar-2009

31-Mar-2008

Filed Currency

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

Exchange Rate

0.628108

0.62385

0.659239

0.697666

0.503145

Consolidated

No

No

No

No

No

 

 

 

 

 

 

Land & Buildings

-

0.8

-

-

-

Fixtures & Fittings

-

0.0

-

-

-

Plant & Vehicles

-

0.0

-

-

-

Total Tangible Fixed Assets

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.0

Intangible Assets

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Fixed Assets

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.0

Total Stocks Work In Progress

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.2

Trade Debtors

-

0.7

-

-

-

Inter-Company Debtors

-

0.0

-

-

-

Director Loans

-

0.0

-

-

-

Other Debtors

-

0.0

-

-

-

Total Debtors

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.6

Cash and Equivalents

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Other Current Assets

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Current Assets

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.9

Total Assets

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.3

0.9

Trade Creditors

-

0.5

-

-

-

Bank Overdraft

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-

Director Loans (Current Liability)

-

-

-

0.0

-

Hire Purchase (Current Liability)

-

-

0.0

0.0

0.0

Finance Lease (Current Liability)

-

-

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Finance Lease/Hire Purchase (Current Liability)

-

-

0.0

0.0

0.0

Accruals/Deferred Income (Current Liability)

-

0.0

-

-

-

Social Security/VAT

-

0.0

-

-

-

Corporation Tax

-

0.1

-

-

-

Other Current Liabilities

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.5

Total Current Liabilities

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

Group Loans (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

-

0.0

Director Loans (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

-

0.0

Hire Purchase (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leasing (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Hire Purchase Loans (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other Long Term Loans

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.0

Accruals/Deferred Income (Long Term Liability)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other Long Term Liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Long Term Liabilities

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.0

Deferred Taxation

-

0.0

-

-

-

Other Provisions

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Provisions

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Issued Capital

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share Premium Accounts

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Revaluation Reserve

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Retained Earnings

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

Other Reserves

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Minority Interests (Balance Sheet)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total Shareholders Funds

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

Net Worth

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

 

 

Annual Cash Flows

 

Financials in: USD (mil)

 

 

 

31-Mar-2012

31-Mar-2011

31-Mar-2010

31-Mar-2009

31-Mar-2008

Period Length

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

Filed Currency

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

Exchange Rate (Period Average)

0.626752

0.643394

0.627794

0.592803

0.498361

Consolidated

No

No

No

No

No

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Ratios

 

Financials in: USD (mil)

 

 

 

31-Mar-2012

31-Mar-2011

31-Mar-2010

31-Mar-2009

31-Mar-2008

Period Length

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

52 Weeks

Filed Currency

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

GBP

Exchange Rate

0.628108

0.62385

0.659239

0.697666

0.503145

Consolidated

No

No

No

No

No

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Ratio

1.74

1.18

1.03

1.10

1.77

Liquidity Ratio

1.25

0.92

0.65

0.87

1.43

Stock Turnover

-

913.00

-

-

-

Credit Period (Days)

-

13,304.00

-

-

-

Working Capital by Sales

-

749.00%

-

-

-

Trade Credit by Debtors

-

66.00

-

-

-

Return on Capital

-

2,382.00%

-

-

-

Return on Assets

-

1,322.00%

-

-

-

Profit Margin

-

1,244.00%

-

-

-

Return on Shareholders Funds

-

3,482.00%

-

-

-

Borrowing Ratio

3,299.00%

6,000.00%

11,392.00%

14,248.00%

139.00%

Equity Gearing

5,257.00%

3,796.00%

3,204.00%

2,926.00%

4,466.00%

Debt Gearing

26.68%

45.70%

70.62%

103.47%

0.60%

Interest Coverage

-

825.00

-

-

-

Sales by Tangible Assets

-

224.00

-

-

-

Creditor Days (Cost of Sales Based)

-

22,249.00

-

-

-

Creditor Days (Sales Based)

-

8,767.00

-

-

-

 


Standard & Poor’s

United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST


 

·        We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.

·         We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

·        The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

·        More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

·        Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.

·        The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

 

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.

 

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for

debt service--remains 'AAA'.

 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.

 

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.

 

We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.

 

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,

the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

 

Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).

 

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.

 

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

 

The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.

 

We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

 

We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.

 

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.

 

Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.

 

Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.

 

Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.

 

When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.

 

Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.

 

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.

 

 


 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

 

Currency

Unit

Indian Rupees

US Dollar

1

Rs.62.45

UK Pound

1

Rs.100.86

Euro

1

Rs.84.50

 

 

INFORMATION DETAILS

 

Report Prepared by :

SDA

 

 

RATING EXPLANATIONS

 

RATING

STATUS

 

 

PROPOSED CREDIT LINE

>86

Aaa

Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability for timely payment of interest and principal sums

 

Unlimited

71-85

Aa

Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Large

56-70

A

Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for payment of interest and principal sums

 

Fairly Large

41-55

Ba

Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments.

 

Satisfactory

26-40

B

Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively below average.

 

Small

11-25

Ca

Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums in default or expected to be in default upon maturity

 

Limited with full security

<10

C

Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised

 

 

Credit not recommended

----

NB

New Business

----

 

This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report. The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as follows:

 

Financial condition (40%)            Ownership background (20%)                 Payment record (10%)

Credit history (10%)                    Market trend (10%)                                Operational size (10%)

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