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Report Date : |
21.01.2014 |
IDENTIFICATION DETAILS
|
Name : |
ZALE CORP. |
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Registered Office : |
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Country : |
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Date of Incorporation : |
1924 |
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Legal Form : |
Public Company |
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Line of Business : |
Subject operates as a specialty retailer of fine jewelry |
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No. of Employees : |
11,900 |
RATING & COMMENTS
|
MIRA’s Rating : |
Ba |
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation is considered normal. Capable to meet normal
commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
Status : |
Satisfactory |
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Payment Behaviour : |
Slow but correct |
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Litigation : |
Exist |
NOTES :
Any query related to this report can be made
on e-mail : infodept@mirainform.com
while quoting report number, name and date.
ECGC Country Risk Classification List – September 30, 2013
|
Country Name |
Previous Rating (30.06.2013) |
Current Rating (30.09.2013) |
|
United States |
A1 |
A1 |
|
Risk Category |
ECGC
Classification |
|
Insignificant |
A1 |
|
Low |
A2 |
|
Moderate |
B1 |
|
High |
B2 |
|
Very High |
C1 |
|
Restricted |
C2 |
|
Off-credit |
D |
UNITED STATES - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of $49,800. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions, and the federal and state governments buy needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand capital plant, to lay off surplus workers, and to develop new products. At the same time, they face higher barriers to enter their rivals' home markets than foreign firms face entering US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment; their advantage has narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. Since 1996, dividends and capital gains have grown faster than wages or any other category of after-tax income. Imported oil accounts for nearly 55% of US consumption. Crude oil prices doubled between 2001 and 2006, the year home prices peaked; higher gasoline prices ate into consumers' budgets and many individuals fell behind in their mortgage payments. Oil prices climbed another 50% between 2006 and 2008, and bank foreclosures more than doubled in the same period. Besides dampening the housing market, soaring oil prices caused a drop in the value of the dollar and a deterioration in the US merchandise trade deficit, which peaked at $840 billion in 2008. The sub-prime mortgage crisis, falling home prices, investment bank failures, tight credit, and the global economic downturn pushed the United States into a recession by mid-2008. GDP contracted until the third quarter of 2009, making this the deepest and longest downturn since the Great Depression. To help stabilize financial markets, in October 2008 the US Congress established a $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The government used some of these funds to purchase equity in US banks and industrial corporations, much of which had been returned to the government by early 2011. In January 2009 the US Congress passed and President Barack OBAMA signed a bill providing an additional $787 billion fiscal stimulus to be used over 10 years - two-thirds on additional spending and one-third on tax cuts - to create jobs and to help the economy recover. In 2010 and 2011, the federal budget deficit reached nearly 9% of GDP. In 2012 the federal government reduced the growth of spending and the deficit shrank to 7.6% of GDP. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required major shifts in national resources from civilian to military purposes and contributed to the growth of the budget deficit and public debt. Through 2011, the direct costs of the wars totaled nearly $900 billion, according to US government figures. US revenues from taxes and other sources are lower, as a percentage of GDP, than those of most other countries. In March 2010, President OBAMA signed into law the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, a health insurance reform that was designed to extend coverage to an additional 32 million American citizens by 2016, through private health insurance for the general population and Medicaid for the impoverished. Total spending on health care - public plus private - rose from 9.0% of GDP in 1980 to 17.9% in 2010. In July 2010, the president signed the DODD-FRANK Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a law designed to promote financial stability by protecting consumers from financial abuses, ending taxpayer bailouts of financial firms, dealing with troubled banks that are "too big to fail," and improving accountability and transparency in the financial system - in particular, by requiring certain financial derivatives to be traded in markets that are subject to government regulation and oversight. In December 2012, the Federal Reserve Board announced plans to purchase $85 billion per month of mortgage-backed and Treasury securities in an effort to hold down long-term interest rates, and to keep short term rates near zero until unemployment drops to 6.5% from the December rate of 7.8%, or until inflation rises above 2.5%. In late 2013, the Fed announced that it would begin scaling back long-term bond purchases to $75 billion per month in January 2014 and reduce them further as conditions warranted; the Fed, however, would keep short-term rates near zero so long as unemployment and inflation had not crossed the previously stated thresholds. Long-term problems include stagnation of wages for lower-income families, inadequate investment in deteriorating infrastructure, rapidly rising medical and pension costs of an aging population, energy shortages, and sizable current account and budget deficits - including significant budget shortages for state governments.
|
Source
: CIA |
ZALE CORP.
Address:
Telephone: +1
972-580-4000
Fax: +1 972-580-5547
Website: www.zalecorp.com
Corporate ID#: 2261333
State: Delaware
Judicial form: Public
Company (NYSE = ZLC)
Date incorporated: 04-26-1991
Date founded: 1924
Stock: 32,848,772
shares issued and outstanding (as of Dec-2-2013)
Value: USD
0.01= par value
Name of manager: Theophlius
KILLION
Business:
Zale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a
specialty retailer of fine jewelry in North America.
The company operates through three segments: Fine Jewelry, Kiosk
Jewelry, and All Other.
The Fine Jewelry segment operates 614 stores and 127 Zales Outlet stores
that offer bridal designs, branded watches, gemstones, gold merchandise,
diamond fashion, and solitaire products under the Zales Jewelers brand; and 146
stores in 9 provinces providing gold jewelry, gemstone jewelry, and watches
under the Peoples Jewellers brand.
It also operates 122 stores in 24 states and Puerto Rico that offer
bridal designs, branded watches, gemstones, gold merchandise, and diamond
fashion and solitaire products under the Gordon's Jewelers brand; and 55 stores
in 6 provinces providing bridal assortment and branded jewelry under the
Mappins Jewellers brand, as well as operates e-commerce sites, including
zales.com, zalesoutlet.com, peoplesjewellers.com, pagoda.com, and
gordonsjewelers.com. This segment also provides repair services to customers.
The Kiosk Jewelry segment offers bracelets, earrings, charms, rings,
non-precious metal products, and gold chains, as well as silver and diamond
jewelry under the Piercing Pagoda and Plumb Gold brands through 630 mall-based
kiosks. This segment also provides ear-piercing services.
The All Other segment offers insurance and reinsurance services for a
range of insurance coverage, such as merchandise replacement coverage, group
life insurance coverage, and credit insurance coverage.
The company was founded in 1924 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Office
of the Foreign Assets Control (OFAC):
The company is not listed on the OFAC list.
The Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List is a publication of OFAC
which lists individuals and organizations with whom United States citizens and
permanent residents are prohibited from doing business.
EIN: 75-0675400
Staff: 11,900
Operations & branches:
At the headquarters, we
find the corporate headquarters.
The group maintains several
stores in the U.S.
Shareholders:
The Company is listed with
the NYSE under symbol ZLC.
As of 09-30-2013, 49% of the
stock was held by institutional and mutual fund owners including:
|
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP |
8.20% |
|
BlackRock Fund Advisors |
4.56% |
|
Netols Asset Management, Inc. |
4.25% |
|
Portolan Capital Management, LLC |
4.11% |
|
DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Series |
3.06% |
Management:
Theophlius KILLION is the President, Director and CEO.
He served as an Executive Vice President of Human Resources, Legal and Corporate
Strategy for Zale Corporation from January 2008 to August 2008. He worked at
executive recruiting firm Berglass+Associates, focused on companies in the
retail, consumer goods and fashion industries. He served as an Executive Vice
President of Human Resources Division of Tommy Hilfiger B.V. since January 2005
and for its subsidiary, Tommy Hilfiger U.S.A., Inc. since March 2004. His
responsibilities entailed worldwide HR strategies and initiatives that included
recruitment and retention, training and development, compensation and benefits
and performance management. Mr. Killion served as the Vice President of Human
Resources of The Limited Brands from January 1996 to March 2004 and also served
as its Corporate Vice President of HR for Merchandising and Design. He served
senior human resource roles at Macy's East and The Home Shopping Network. He
has 30 years of Leadership experience. He has been a Director of Express Inc.
since April 2012. He has been a Director at Zale Corporation since September 23,
2010. He received a 2013 Better Chance DreamBuilder Award. He matriculated at
The Hill School, Pennsylvania.
He graduated cum laude from Tufts University with a bachelor’s degree in
history and English and master’s degree in education from Tufts University in
1975.
Thomas A. HAUBENSTRICKER has been the Chief Financial Officer and a
Senior Vice President of Zale Corporation since October 17, 2011.
He served as Vice President, Finance and Administration of HP Enterprise
Services, LLC since January 2003. Mr. Haubenstricker served as Chief Financial
Officer for EMEA and Vice President of EMEA Operations at HP Enterprise
Services, LLC since November 2006. Mr. Haubenstricker served as Interim
Co-Chief Financial Officer of HP Enterprise Services, LLC, from March 15, 2006
to August 22, 2006. He served as Managing Director of Turnberry Advisors since
January 2010. He served as Vice President of Strategic Planning and Business
Development, Managing Director of Financial Planning and Reporting and Director
of Financial Analysis and Reporting of Electronic Data Systems Corp. Mr.
Haubenstricker has responsibility for Corporate Financial Planning and Analysis
and Corporate Business Development. He has played an integral role in EDS'
business planning and has led all recent activities in the area of acquisitions
and divestitures. He joined EDS' finance organization in 1985 and has held
various financial accounting, planning and reporting positions in the United
States and EMEA (EDS' Europe, Middle East and Africa region).
He served as Co-Chief Financial Officer, Vice President and Chief
Financial
Officer, EMEA Region and Vice President of Finance for the combined
Hewlett-Packard and EDS Business Services Group. During his career, he has led
business performance improvement programs focused on revenue growth, margin
expansion and free cash flow generation. He has been a Director of MphasiS
Corp., since June 2006.
He served as Director of Mphasis Limited from June 27, 2006 to March 28,
2007. Mr. Haubenstricker holds BBA in Accounting from Central Michigan
University and is a Certified Management Accountant.
Subsidiaries
And partnership:
ZALE DELAWARE INC.
Incorporated in Delaware on 02-14-1986
ID# 2083487
(US operations)
ZALES INTERNATIONAL INC
Incorporated in Delaware on 05-07-1999
ID# 3027356
(Canada operations)
On attachment:
- 10K 2012/2013 (year ending October 2013)
- 1st 10Q 2013/2014
On January 10, 2014, Zale Corporation announced sales results for the
months of November and December 2013. The company reported that comparable
store sales increased 2.0% at constant exchange rates, or 0.7% on a USD
reported basis, for the combined months of November and December 2013. This
increase follows a 1.6% increase at constant exchange rates, or a 2.3% increase
on a USD reported basis, in the prior year period. Revenues for the two-month
period were $556 million compared to $567 million in the same period last year.
The decrease in revenues is primarily due to the net decrease of 91 stores
compared to last year and a decline in the Canadian exchange rate, partially
offset by the 2% constant currency comparable store sales growth. For the
quarter ending January 31, 2014, the company expects gross margin to be
approximately 52.6%, or 200 basis points higher than the prior year quarter.
This improvement is primarily the result of efficiencies gained from
merchandise sourcing program, discipline around promotional activities and a
favorable commodity cost environment. Operating margin is expected to be
approximately 8.6% or 100 basis points higher than the prior year quarter.
Banks: Citibank
Bank of America
Legal filings
& complaints:
As of today date, there are several legal filing pending with various
Courts.
Secured debts summary (UCC):
Several in various States.
Trade references:
Date reported: December 2013
High credit: USD 100,000+
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: November 2013
Line of business: Office supply
Paying status: 2 days beyond terms
Date reported: December 2013
High credit: USD 13,500,000+
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: November 2013
Line of business: Payroll
Paying status: As agreed
Date reported: December 2013
High credit: USD 200,000
Now owing: 0
Past due: 0
Last purchase: November 2013
Line of business: Telecommunications
Paying status: 2 days beyond terms
Domestic credit history:
Domestic credit history
appears as follow:
Monthly Payment Trends - Recent Activity
|
Date |
Up to 30 DBT |
31-60 DBT |
61-90 DBT |
>90 DBT |
||
|
08/13 |
$4,972,600 |
45% |
51% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
|
09/13 |
$5,143,100 |
83% |
16% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
10/13 |
$5,555,200 |
85% |
15% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
11/13 |
$3,741,300 |
99% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
12/13 |
$4,018,600 |
97% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
01/14 |
$1,366,300 |
90% |
10% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
National Credit Bureaus
gave a correct credit rating.
According to our credit analysts, during the last 6 months, domestic
payments were made with an average of 2 to 5 days beyond terms.
International
credit history:
Payments of imports are currently made with an average of 2 to 5 days
beyond terms.
Other comments:
The Company turned back to
profit in 2013.
The Company is in good
standing.
This means that all local
and federal taxes were paid on due date.
The risk is low.
Our opinion:
A business connection may
be conducted.
DIAMOND INDUSTRY – INDIA
-
From time immemorial, India is well known in the world as the birthplace
for diamonds. It is difficult to trace the origin of diamonds but history
says that in the remote past, diamonds were mined only in India. Diamond
production in India can be traced back to almost 8th Century B.C.
India, in fact, remained undisputed leader till 18th Century
when Brazilian fields were discovered in 1725 followed by emergence of S.
Africa, Russia and Australia.
-
The achievement of the Indian diamond industry was possible only due to
combination of the manufacturing skills of the Indian workforce and the
untiring and unflagging efforts of the Indian diamantaires, supported by
progressive Government policies.
-
The area of study of family owned diamond businesses derives its
importance from the huge conglomerate of family run organizations which operate
in the diamond industry since many generations.
-
Some of the basic traits of family run business enterprises include
spirit of entrepreneurship, mutual trust lowers transaction costs, small,
nimble and quick to react, information as a source of advantage and
philanthropy.
-
Family owned diamond businesses need to improve on many fronts including
higher standard of corporate governance, long-term performance – focused
strategies, modern management and technology.
-
Utmost caution is to be exercised while dealing with some medium and
large diamond traders which are usually engaged in fictitious import – export,
inter-company transactions, financially assisted by banks. In the process,
several public sector banks lost several hundred million rupees. They mostly
diverted borrowed money for diamond business into real estate and capital
markets.
-
Excerpts from Times of India dated 30th October 2010 is as
under –
-
Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council in its statistical data has
shown the export of polished diamonds to have increase by 28 % in February
2013. Compared to $ 1.4 bn worth of polished diamond export in February, 2012,
India exported $ 1.84 billion worth of polished diamonds in February 2013. A
senior executive of GJEPC said, “Export of cut and polished diamonds started
falling month-wise after the imposition of 2 % of import duty on the polished
diamonds. But February, 2013 has given a new ray of hope to the industry as the
export of polished diamonds has actually increased by 28 %. It means the
industry is on the track of recovery and round tripping of diamonds has
stopped completely.” Demand has started coming from the US, the UK, Japan and
China. India’s polished diamond export is expected to cross $ 21 bn in 2013-14.
-
The banking sector has started exercising restraint while following
prudent risk management norms when lending money to gems and jewellery sector. This
follows the implementation of Basel III accord – a global voluntary regulatory
standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity.
Standard & Poor’s
|
United
States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks,
Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative |
|
Publication
date: 05-Aug-2011 20:13:14 EST |
·
We have lowered our long-term
sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and
affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
·
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings
from CreditWatch negative.
·
The downgrade reflects our opinion
that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration
recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to
stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
·
More broadly, the downgrade
reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of
American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of
ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when
we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
·
Since then, we have changed our
view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties
over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress
and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a
broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt
dynamics any time soon.
·
The outlook on the long-term rating
is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two
years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest
rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government
debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
TORONTO (Standard &
Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it
lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America
to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed
its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's
removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011,
with negative implications.
The
transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of
the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public-
and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for
debt service--remains
'AAA'.
We lowered our long-term
rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over
raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate
that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending,
especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is
less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful
process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and
the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we
believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the
middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the rating
was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of
greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41).
Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external,
and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating,
as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings
off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment
of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by
delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that
the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course
of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The
political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's
governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less
predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and
the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over
fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the
differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily
difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short
of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged
until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to
relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the
Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for
now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition,
the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in
other entitlements,
the containment of which
we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal
sustainability.
Our opinion is that
elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to
effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent
with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and
Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In
our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the
government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the
debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era
of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political
consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe
that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed
medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on
the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers
closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely
Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's
takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and
the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s
finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much
as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through
2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to
initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed
Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to
recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or
otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
The act further provides
that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2
trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would
mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and
Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage
Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the
committee might recommend.
We note that in a letter
to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated
total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the
next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal
projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the
CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to
include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In
general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation
of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's
measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the
framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is
finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration
could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1
trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we
maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels
of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue
to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be
consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project
that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the
end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of
sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as
noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous
projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003
tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed
our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue
to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress
reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case
scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near
2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the
outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these
same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of
new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners
lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario,
we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated
74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside
scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a
possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable
macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round
of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not
occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for
U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key
reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change
only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose
monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible
that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a
result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in
10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In
this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP
in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios
also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP
data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our
perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when
evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the
revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so
the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real
terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised
data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared
with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish
pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences
of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt
deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a
result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP
growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S.
to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant
peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our
base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt
is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five
sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year
ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%.
By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between
30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at
79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt
burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by
2015.
Standard & Poor's
transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment
reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public
and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service.
Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has
deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of
this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the
Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly
remote.
The outlook on the
long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario
illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could
lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside
scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select
Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other
initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high
earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and
we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt
dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
|
Currency |
Unit
|
Indian Rupees |
|
US Dollar |
1 |
Rs.61.63 |
|
|
1 |
Rs.101.25 |
|
Euro |
1 |
Rs.83.42 |
INFORMATION DETAILS
|
Report Prepared
by : |
NNA |
RATING EXPLANATIONS
|
RATING |
STATUS |
PROPOSED CREDIT LINE |
|
|
>86 |
Aaa |
Possesses an extremely sound financial base with the strongest capability
for timely payment of interest and principal sums |
Unlimited |
|
71-85 |
Aa |
Possesses adequate working capital. No caution needed for credit
transaction. It has above average (strong) capability for payment of interest
and principal sums |
Large |
|
56-70 |
A |
Financial & operational base are regarded healthy. General
unfavourable factors will not cause fatal effect. Satisfactory capability for
payment of interest and principal sums |
Fairly Large |
|
41-55 |
Ba |
Overall operation
is considered normal. Capable to meet normal commitments. |
Satisfactory |
|
26-40 |
B |
Capability to overcome financial difficulties seems comparatively
below average. |
Small |
|
11-25 |
Ca |
Adverse factors are apparent. Repayment of interest and principal sums
in default or expected to be in default upon maturity |
Limited with
full security |
|
<10 |
C |
Absolute credit risk exists. Caution needed to be exercised |
Credit not
recommended |
|
---- |
NB |
New Business |
---- |
This score serves as a reference to assess SC’s credit risk
and to set the amount of credit to be extended. It is calculated from a
composite of weighted scores obtained from each of the major sections of this report.
The assessed factors and their relative weights (as indicated through %) are as
follows:
Financial
condition (40%) Ownership
background (20%) Payment
record (10%)
Credit history
(10%) Market trend
(10%) Operational
size (10%)
This report is issued at your request without any
risk and responsibility on the part of MIRA INFORM PRIVATE LIMITED (MIPL)
or its officials.